PI: Eddy S. F. Yeung, Ph.D. Candidate Emory University
Grant Amount and Grant Fund: $2,500, Second Century Fund
Project Abstract: Citizens in Western societies often take democracy for granted, but over half of the world population is still living in autocracies. Why are autocracies so persistent? What is the role of propaganda in sustaining authoritarian rule? A rich literature on authoritarian politics suggests that two functions of autocratic propaganda exist: first, persuading citizens of the regime’s merits; second, signaling to citizens the regime’s strength. I argue that there exists a third function of propaganda that also benefits authoritarian survival and yet through a different mechanism: provoking the opposition. By producing provocative propaganda to taunt and mock the opposition, the autocrat can evoke regime opponents’ anger and radicalize them in mass movements. When these movements become increasingly radical, they start to lose legitimacy and public support. In turn, the public is less willing to join forces with the opposition and, consequently, the movements become less likely to succeed. Thus, provocative propaganda benefits the autocrat. To test my theory, I will conduct a survey experiment in Hong Kong, where provocative propaganda was prevalent during the Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill movement. My project has important implications for top-down polarization as a regime survival strategy, and will advance our understanding of strategic provocation in domestic politics.