PI: Ozlem Tuncel Gurlek, Ph.D. Candidate, Georgia State University
Grant Fund and Grant Amount: $2,500, William A. Steiger Fund for Legislative Studies
Project Abstract: As of 2021, more than 68 percent of the world population lives under autocracies. International organizations and think tanks struggle tenaciously to find valuable and applicable mechanisms and strategies to facilitate a transition to democracy while creeping authoritarianism threatens every corner of the world. Contemporary autocracies are unique in the sense that they heavily depend on political parties and elections. This project interrogates the role of opposition parties in these competitive autocratic regimes, particularly examining these parties’ ability to unite against the omnipresent autocrats and oust the incumbent to pave the way for a transition to democracy. This project seeks to understand why some opposition parties in competitive autocratic regimes are able to successfully form a pre-electoral coalition (PEC), while others fail to coordinate. What explains the cooperation of opposition parties in regimes where electoral politics is an uneven playing field, and harassment of opposition is a ubiquitous practice? In this research, I argue that opposition parties that successfully resolve differences among them and resolve conflicts within each party are more likely to form a coalition before elections. I rely on a mixture of evidence to corroborate this theory. I build an original dataset on coalitions, test my findings in disparate parts of the world, and focus on the Turkish opposition parties as a case study. Ultimately, this approach helps me to develop our knowledge on opposition strategies, reversing democratic backsliding, and the survival of authoritarian regimes.