{"id":1655,"date":"2020-05-05T12:00:08","date_gmt":"2020-05-05T16:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/connect.apsanet.org\/raisethevote\/?p=1655"},"modified":"2020-05-06T10:24:29","modified_gmt":"2020-05-06T14:24:29","slug":"what-you-need-to-know-about-election-polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/connect.apsanet.org\/raisethevote\/2020\/05\/05\/what-you-need-to-know-about-election-polls\/","title":{"rendered":"What You Need To Know About Election Polls"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Th<\/span>e surprising outcome of the 2016 presidential election\u00a0<\/span>led<\/span>\u00a0many people to question the\u00a0<\/span>credibility of public opinion polling. That\u2019s a fair question, considering so many polls suggested Hillary Clinton would win the election.\u00a0<\/span>Twelve of the thirteen<\/span><\/a>\u00a0final national polls predicted a Clinton victory. I<\/span>ndeed,\u00a0<\/span>some<\/span>\u00a0forecasters<\/span>\u00a0pegged her chances of winning at\u00a0<\/span>ninety percent<\/span><\/a>, or even<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>ninety-nine<\/span><\/i>\u00a0percent<\/span><\/a>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So what went wrong with those polls? <\/span><\/h3>\n

The truth is<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>for the most part, the polls were actually right!<\/span>\u00a0National polls suggested Hillary Clinton would have a\u00a0<\/span>three<\/span>-percentage-point lead over Donald Trump. <\/span>In reality, she finished with a\u00a0<\/span>two<\/span>-point lead nationally<\/span><\/a>. That\u2019s not bad when we consider the myriad challenges\u00a0<\/span>pollsters face as they try to capture the mood of an erratic public. True, sometimes pollsters err. But often polls appear wrong because we inter<\/span>pret them incorrectly. It is on all of us as citizens\u00a0<\/span>to familiarize\u00a0<\/span>ourselves<\/span>\u00a0with how polls work,\u00a0<\/span>and what they can and cannot tell us.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A slightly blurry photograph can still capture the general scene and the direction of the object, but the image will not perfectly reflect what is actually happening, nor necessarily what will happen. Polls are similar\u2014they give us a fairly clear perspective on a given issue at a given time, but things can and do change.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Here\u2019s the most important thing to remember about election polls: they\u00a0<\/span>are<\/span>\u00a0n<\/span>ot instruments of prediction<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Instead,\u00a0<\/span>think of them as<\/span>\u00a0slightly blurry photographs<\/span>\u00a0of an object in motion<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span>The<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>photograph tells us what is happening in\u00a0<\/span>one particular<\/span>\u00a0moment, at\u00a0<\/span>one\u00a0<\/span>particular time.<\/span>\u00a0A slightly blurry photo<\/span>graph<\/span>\u00a0can still capture the general scene<\/span>\u00a0and the direction of the object<\/span>, but the image will not perfectly reflect what is actually happening<\/span>, nor necessarily what\u00a0<\/span>will<\/span><\/i>\u00a0happen<\/span>. Polls are\u00a0<\/span>similar\u2014t<\/span>hey give us a fairly clear perspective on a given issue at a given time<\/span>, b<\/span>ut things can and do change.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To be better consumers of polls in 2020, it is helpful to look at what happen<\/span>ed<\/span>\u00a0in 2016. Let\u2019s consider some of the reason<\/span>s polls appeared to miss the mark during t<\/span>he last presidential election cycle.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

W<\/span><\/b>hy might polls be off?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n