Mini-conferences at the APSA Annual Meeting consist of a full day of sessions devoted to a specific theme. Each mini-conference is designed to support a larger cohesive outcome than traditional panels, such as an edited volume or an omnibus dataset.
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8:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m. – Panel
12:00 p.m. – 1:30 p.m. – Panel
2:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. – Panel
4:00 p.m. – 5:30 p.m. – Panel
Chinese Politics Mini-Conference (Thursday, September 11)
Sponsored by Division 13: Politics of Communist and Former Communist Countries
Since its inception in 2016, the Chinese Politics Mini-Conference has facilitated connections and community building across the Chinese politics field. In the 2025 mini-conference, which marks its tenth anniversary, we build on the existing tradition by featuring a set of theoretically and methodologically diverse papers, presented by scholars across ranks and global academic affiliations. The research presented at this conference will examine issues in both domestic politics and international relations, drawing on historical, contemporary, and emerging phenomenon to make sense of Chinese politics today.
The mini-conference will also include a lunch session featuring a keynote speech by an eminent scholar of Chinese Politics, as well as a post-conference reception to allow scholars to form professional relationships and foster new intellectual connections. For these activities, we have secured some funding from the University of British Columbia and will apply for a Connection Grant from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada in February.
Mechanisms of Authoritarian Control in a Globalized World
Thursday, September 11, 8:00 am – 9:30 am
Created Panel
Participants:
(Chair) Xiaojun Li, University of British Columbia
(Discussant) Rongbin Han, University of Georgia
(Discussant) Peter L. Lorentzen, University of San Francisco
Session Description:
This panel investigates various mechanisms through which authoritarian regimes, particularly China, sustain political control in an increasingly globalized and interconnected world. Drawing on innovative methodologies and original datasets, the papers presented here illuminate how nationalism, propaganda, censorship, and state infiltration of private sectors serve as critical tools for maintaining regime stability.
Hanning Luo and Yuhua Wang’s paper, “The Rise of Academic Nationalism in China,” provides a large-scale analysis of nationalist behavior among intellectuals under political pressure. By examining over 150,000 academic articles, they show how nationalist sentiment surged in response to Xi Jinping’s political rhetoric, offering insights into the intersection of academia and authoritarian control.
Amy Dunphy and Tongtong Zhang’s study, “Censorship Outside the Great Firewall: Using Porns for Political Suppression,” shifts focus to how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) suppresses criticism on external platforms like X/Twitter. Their findings reveal a coordinated network of explicit content used to strategically distract and discredit critics, highlighting the regime’s innovative adaptation of censorship tactics in global digital spaces.
Siyu Liang and Lachlan McNamee, in their paper “How Useful Is a Useful Idiot? Foreigners and the Amplification of Propaganda,” analyze the role of foreign advocates in authoritarian propaganda. Their experiments demonstrate that while foreign voices amplify propaganda’s effectiveness abroad, they fail to persuade domestic audiences, underscoring the targeted and strategic nature of authoritarian communication efforts.
Xing Chen and Haifeng Huang’s paper, “Principal-Agent Dilemma in Propaganda,” delves into the complexities of propaganda production in the context of China’s trade liberalization. By examining regional variations in propaganda intensity after China’s WTO accession, they uncover the challenges of aligning central and local interests, highlighting the limits of propaganda in bolstering public support.
Finally, Ye Zhang’s paper, “Political Control in the Workplace: How Autocrats Use Firms to Control Citizens,” explores how the Chinese state infiltrates private firms through Communist Party cells to maintain political control. Combining administrative data, surveys, and fieldwork, the study reveals the nuanced and evolving strategies of authoritarian regimes to leverage economic structures for political purposes.
Together, these papers provide a comprehensive examination of the diverse strategies used by authoritarian regimes to sustain control, from academia, social media, and private firms. This panel promises to offer valuable insights into the intersection of political control and societal adaptation under authoritarianism.
Papers:
The Rise of Academic Nationalism in China
Hanning Luo, Harvard University; Yuhua Wang, Harvard University
Academic freedom, frequently curtailed in authoritarian regimes, is a fundamental civil right. How do intellectuals respond to nationalist political pressures under autocracy? While existing research on nationalism primarily focuses on public opinion, this study offers the first large-scale empirical analysis of nationalist behavior among intellectuals in an authoritarian context. Using an original dataset of over 150,000 articles published in Chinese academic journals from 2009 to 2023, we apply machine learning to measure two dimensions of these articles: patriotism and xenophobia. Employing a difference-in-differences approach, we estimate the impact of Xi Jinping’s speech on publication behavior, demonstrating that academic nationalism significantly increased in government-controlled universities post-speech.
How Useful Is a Useful Idiot? Foreigners and the Amplification of Propaganda
Siyu Liang, University of California, Los Angeles; Lachlan McNamee, Monash University
How do authoritarian regimes make propaganda persuasive? This study examines the use of foreign advocates or so-called “useful idiots” in propaganda messaging. Despite the commonality of foreign advocates in Chinese, Russian, or Iranian state media, it is unclear whether these “useful idiots” actually have persuasive impact on domestic and international audiences. We conducted two survey experiments with approximately 4,800 respondents in mainland China and the United States, randomly exposing participants to soft propaganda videos featuring either American or Chinese speakers discussing positively the extent of freedom they feel exists in China. We find no evidence that foreign advocates amplify the persuasiveness of state propaganda on domestic Chinese audiences. However, we do find strong evidence that Americans are more persuaded by propaganda messages delivered by a fellow American than by a Chinese advocate. “Useful idiots” are therefore an effective tool for China to make its propaganda more persuasive but only for external, not internal, audiences. Our findings show how autocracies can build global support by drawing on foreign advocates which, given currently heightened geopolitical competition, has implications for democratic resilience.
Principal-Agent Dilemma in Propaganda
Xing Chen, Fudan University; Haifeng Huang, The Ohio State University
When authoritarian regimes adopt trade openness to spur economic growth, they face threats to political support due to liberalization and public exposure to foreign ideas, hence the increased need for propaganda. Using China’s 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) as a quasi-natural experiment and a difference-in-differences design, we analyze how trade liberalization affects propaganda intensity across regions with varying trade exposure. Results show that communist party mouthpiece newspapers in coastal provinces, which were more exposed by trade liberalization, increased propaganda intensity relative to similar newspapers in inland provinces. Commercial newspapers in coastal provinces that are more popular with regular citizens, on the other hand, reduce propaganda intensity to protect local economic interests. The increased propaganda efforts of party newspapers, however, fail to bolster political support and public trust in government in coastal regions relative to inland regions, as citizens favor exposure to more engaging content of commercial newspapers. An analysis of the World Values Surveys data around China’s WTO accession indicates that, in fact, political support in coastal regions decreased more than in inland regions. This suggests that local propaganda often reflects a principal-agent issue: Local officials prioritize signaling loyalty to central authorities through performative propaganda efforts that do not actually influence public opinion. These findings highlight the challenges authoritarian regimes face in balancing political control with economic development and managing the principal-agent problem in propaganda production.
Political Control in the Workplace: How Autocrats Use Firms to Control Citizens
Ye Zhang, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
How do authoritarian regimes maintain control as their private sectors grow? Conventional wisdom suggests that private firms are independent entities, and a growing private sector would weaken authoritarian control and facilitate democratization. However, firms are increasingly assisting autocrats in sustaining power, such as mobilizing employees to vote for autocrats in electoral autocracies or firing employee-activists to demobilize mass protests. This paper develops a theoretical framework to explain authoritarian control through private firms. It addresses two core questions: Under what circumstances do autocrats use private firms to control citizens, given the array of other tools at their disposal? And how do they implement this strategy?
Using China as a case study, I examine how the state infiltrates private firms through Communist Party cells. To investigate these questions, I combine administrative data, surveys, and fieldwork. I compile an original dataset documenting party cell presence in Chinese listed private firms between 2012 and present, offering systematic evidence of their growth, establishment timelines, and institutional power. I complement this with survey data from employees of both listed and non-listed firms, which include embedded experiments to test the pacifying effects of party cells on employees’ attitudes and behaviors. Finally, through interviews with firm owners, employees, and party cadres across multiple Chinese cities, I explore the challenges and varied dynamics of embedding party cells in corporate governance.
My research anticipates that while the state strategically promotes party cells in private firms to exert political control, their influence tends to be inconsistent. Party cells often lack funding and state support, relying instead on firms for resources, which limits their power over business decisions. However, they are likely to be more effective in shaping employee attitudes by fostering loyalty to the regime and discouraging behaviors contrary to state interests. These results highlight a broader trend of state penetration into private sectors in authoritarian regimes, challenging the notion that economic liberalization inevitably undermines authoritarian control.
Censorship outside the Great Firewall: Using Porns for Political Suppression
Tongtong Zhang, American University; Amy Dunphy, Conifer
How do authoritarian rulers suppress criticism on social media platforms which they cannot directly control? In this paper, we find that off-putting pornographic content is disproportionately inundating the X/Twitter accounts of critics of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime. We assess the possibility that the regime strategically uses this explicit content to discourage people from accessing information it wishes to suppress. Using an original dataset of 142 randomly sampled Chinese-language pornography accounts on X/Twitter, we show that during fall 2023, these accounts acted in a coordinated network to post waves of 147,623 explicit images and videos as tweet replies to CCP critics. Some anti-CCP media accounts (less than 1 million followers) receive over 1,000 pornographic comments within a week, whereas pro-CCP media (over 10 million followers) receive fewer than 4 such comments a week. When a tweet is opened or shared, this explicit content appears directly beneath the text, which likely discourages users from reading or sharing the targeted tweets. We further conduct a global survey experiment to assess the impact of these explicit comments on viewers’ attitudes towards the targeted critics and the Chinese regime. While previous research has established that the CCP regime crowds out criticism by flooding domestic platforms with positive and cheerleading messages, our findings suggest that on platforms that operate beyond its borders, the regime may use censorship strategies that are domestically illegal—spamming explicit content to smear critics and create strategic distraction.
Diplomacy, Nationalism and Economic Statecraft in China’s Global Strategies
Thursday, September 11, 10:00am – 11:30am
Created Panel with Virtual Participation
Participants:
(Chair) Ning Leng, Georgetown University
(Discussant) Jiakun Zhang, University of Kansas
(Discussant) Wendy Leutert, Indiana University
Session Description:
This panel explores the multifaceted ways in which China navigates its growing global influence through diplomacy, economic statecraft, and strategic investments. The papers collectively provide insights into the interplay between China’s international strategies, its domestic political imperatives, and the geopolitical reactions they elicit.
Yuan Zhou, Tetsuro Kobayashi, and Lungta Seki examine China’s assertive “Wolf Warrior Diplomacy” in their paper “Evaluating the Impact of China’s “Wolf Warrior Diplomacy” in East Asia.” Through a large-scale survey experiment across Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, they assess how confrontational rhetoric affects perceptions of China and the U.S., revealing both its potential and its limitations in influencing regional public opinion.
In “Voice Support via Purchasing Power: Consumer Nationalism in China,” Yingjie Fan explores the dynamics of economic nationalism in an authoritarian context. Using the Xinjiang Cotton Controversy as a case study, the paper highlights how Chinese consumers’ nationalistic impulses translate into collective economic actions, demonstrating how the state can leverage bottom-up participation for geopolitical signaling.
Valeria Lauria provides a comparative lens on global economic competition in “Adaptive Convergence: The Shaping of China and EU Financing Strategies in Africa.” Her analysis reveals how China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the EU’s Global Gateway have influenced one another, reshaping global lending norms and emphasizing the critical role of African agency in these engagements.
Keyi Tang, Min Ye, and Sarah Sklar address China’s environmental diplomacy in “Commerce or Coalition: A Geopolitical Analysis of China’s Green Belt and Road.” By examining global green energy investments under the Green Belt and Road Initiative, they uncover the geopolitical motivations behind China’s sustainability agenda, challenging claims of greenwashing and highlighting the role of strategic alignment.
Finally, Hong Zhang and Yuan Wang focus on the internal dynamics of China’s overseas operations in “Party Presence in Overseas Chinese State-owned Enterprises.” Through ethnographic fieldwork and participatory observation, they investigate how the Chinese Communist Party integrates itself into overseas SOEs, consolidating political influence and reconnecting expatriate employees to the party-state system.
These papers collectively shed light on how China balances its ambitions for global leadership with domestic political imperatives and international challenges. By addressing themes of diplomacy, economic influence, and party-state integration, the panel provides a comprehensive exploration of the strategies shaping China’s global rise and its implications for the world order.
Papers:
Voice Support via Purchasing Power: Consumer Nationalism in China
Yingjie Fan, Princeton University
How do individuals living in authoritarian regimes engage in political participation? Beyond dissenting and acting as if, citizens patriotically demonstrate support for authoritarian rulings both symbolically and behaviorally. However, the extent to which nationalism is potent enough to habituate people into engaging in everyday nationalistic consumption remains under-explored, along with its potential political and economic consequences. Therefore, I utilized high-frequency online sales records and social media posts in the event of Xinjiang Cotton Controversy to examine the durability, temporality, and reversibility of bottom-up economic nationalism among Chinese consumers. The sale records reveal that consumers respond to nationalistic impulses immediately, with boycotts of anti-China brands causing sharp declines in sales. Interestingly, such nationalistic boycotts tend to outlast public outrage over anti-China practices but remain relatively short-lived, varying significantly across brands and depending on media exposure. This collective nature of nationalistic consumption reveals the existence of a voluntary yet potent “soft sanction” within the authoritarian ruler’s toolkit. It enables authoritarian regimes to induce voluntary boycotts and leverage economic purchasing power to punish corporations with opposing ideological alignments.
Adaptive Convergence: The Shaping of China and EU Financing Strategies in Africa
Valeria Lauria, European University Institute
Over the past few decades, China has emerged as Africa’s predominant partner in infrastructure development, effectively meeting the continent’s infrastructure needs while enhancing its global economic position. Concurrently, other significant global players such as the US and EU have intensified their engagement, signaling a shift towards a multipolar approach in Africa’s infrastructure efforts. This article provides a comparative analysis of the financing strategies employed by China and the EU in Africa, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Global Gateway (GG). Through detailed document analysis and in-depth interviews, this study highlights a pattern of ‘adaptive convergence’ where Western and Chinese development finance actors increasingly emulate each other’s strategies, and it illustrates how competition between these entities is transforming lending norms and practices. The emulation encompasses financing sectors, drivers, lending practices, alignment with international standards on environmental and social governance and engagement with local political actors. The paper also underscores the pivotal role of African agency, demonstrating that African states and regional actors are actively shaping the terms of engagement to better align with their domestic interests and development priorities.
Commerce or Coalition: A Geopolitical Analysis of China’s Green Belt and Road
Keyi Tang, ESADE Business School; Min Ye, Boston University; Sarah Sklar, Boston University
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has faced environmental criticism, leading to the launch of the Green Belt and Road Initiative (GBRI) in 2017. This study explores whether China’s green investments are commercially or geopolitically driven, addressing the debate between “greenwashing” claims and genuine shifts towards sustainability. Using a novel database of all Chinese-financed global plants from 2000 to 2023, we employ two-way fixed effects and instrumental variable approaches. We find that the GBRI has significantly increased China’s green energy investments, particularly in geopolitically aligned countries, even after controlling for economic factors. This effect is not observed in U.S.-allied nations. Our findings suggest that the GBRI is not merely greenwashing, highlighting the role of geopolitical factors in shaping China’s global renewable energy investments.
Party Presence in Overseas Chinese State-Owned Enterprises
Hong Zhang, Indiana University Bloomington; Yuan Wang, Duke Kunshan University
How does the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) consolidate its presence in state-owned enterprises’ (SOEs) overseas operations, and how do employees in these projects respond to such top-down initiatives? While extensive literature has examined the CCP’s role in Chinese SOEs—focusing on its efforts to maintain control over increasingly powerful businesses and its contribution to corporate governance—its functions in overseas SOEs remain underexplored. This paper attempts to fill that gap with innovative evidence. We argue that the CCP consolidates its presence in SOEs’ overseas projects by integrating party-building activities with essential on-site needs, including employee benefits, human resources support, and disciplinary oversight. Grassroots Party members view these activities as additional resources that they can legitimately leverage. Importantly, these overseas party-building efforts are internally oriented, aiming to reconnect overseas members with China’s system rather than pursue external infiltration. Empirical data were collected through one-month participatory observation in a Chinese construction SOE in Ethiopia in August 2024, along with observations gleaned from multi-year fieldwork in Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Angola, Pakistan, and Beijing on Chinese SOEs’ overseas operations. These primary data were triangulated with online ethnography of social media accounts managed by Party organizations in SOEs, as well as policy and media documents. This study represents one of the first attempts to understand the CCP’s role in overseas SOEs by detailing grassroots party-building activities, their rationale, and their functions. Drawing on original ethnographic work and interviews conducted over the years, this research contributes to the emerging call in Chinese political economy to “bring the Party back in” and explores the daily realities of “party-state capitalism” beyond China.
Evaluating the Impact of China’s “Wolf Warrior Diplomacy” in East Asia
Yuan Zhou, Kobe University; Tetsuro Kobayashi, Waseda University; Lungta Seki, Koç University
Regulation, State Capacity, and Cultural Foundations of Governance in China
Thursday, September 11, 12:00 – 1:30pm
Created Panel with Virtual Participation
Participants:
(Chair) Xiao Ma, Peking University
(Discussant) Martin Dimitrov, Tulane University
(Discussant) Lynette H. Ong, University of Toronto
Session Description:
This panel explores the intricate intersections of governance, institutional design, and socio-political dynamics within the context of China’s domestic political economy. Through a diverse range of methodological approaches and datasets, the papers in this session collectively illuminate how state regulations, traditional beliefs, and societal norms shape governance outcomes and economic development in one of the world’s most dynamic political environments.
Bo Feng’s paper, “Strategic Rule-Making, Discretion Delegation, and Bureaucratic Oversight,” investigates the balance between rule-based monitoring and discretionary delegation in policy implementation. By analyzing over 300,000 local regulatory documents, it reveals how policymakers navigate the trade-offs between precision and flexibility, shedding light on the factors driving institutional oversight in a complex bureaucratic system.
Shengqiao Lin, Xuan Wang, Jiayi Hou, and Lixing Li address the dual impacts of state ownership on business regulatory compliance in their paper, “Forbearance or Control: Dual Impact of State Ownership on Business Compliance.” Using comprehensive datasets on app security and state capital investments, their findings uncover a U-shaped relationship between state ownership and compliance, illustrating how the depth of state-business connections determines firms’ adherence to regulatory requirements.
Renhao Ye’s paper, “Hydraulic State: Hydropower Construction and Subnational State Capacity in China,” examines how large-scale infrastructure projects extend state capacity to local levels. Through a detailed analysis of hydropower stations construction, the study demonstrates how grassroots administrative structures established for these projects bolster long-term state penetration and resource extraction capabilities.
Xiaohong Yu, Zhihao Xu, and Zhaoyang Sun contribute to our understanding of revolutionary transformations in their study, “Revolution Meets Tradition: Gender Norms in Chinese Criminal Sentencing.” Analyzing millions of court cases, they uncover the persistent interplay between traditional Confucian norms and revolutionary reforms, revealing how societal upheavals disrupt but also reinforce deep-seated gender disparities.
Finally, Adam Liu and Tong Liu’s paper, “Of Dragons and Roosters: The Political Economy of Traditional Beliefs in China,” uncovers the surprising influence of traditional astrological beliefs on contemporary political decision-making. By linking leader compatibility to resource allocation and governance outcomes, their research highlights the enduring cultural foundations underlying China’s political economy.
Together, these papers offer a comprehensive view of how institutional frameworks, cultural traditions, and state policies coalesce to shape governance and economic performance in China. The panel promises to foster a rich discussion on the broader implications for state capacity, regulatory dynamics, and the role of tradition in modern political systems.
Papers:
Strategic Rule-Making, Discretion Delegation, and Bureaucratic Oversight
Bo Feng, Boston University
Policymakers face a trade-off between using rules to monitor agents and delegating discretion to them for carrying out policies. Rules impose specific constraints but require policymakers to draft detailed regulations, while delegation entails lower drafting costs but risks abuse of discretion by agents to their own advantages. This trade-off is more pronounced when institutions of bureaucratic oversight are weak. Using an original dataset of 319,000 Chinese local regulatory documents from 2010 to 2022, each highlighting one government policy task, I apply natural language processing to analyze their rule-making details. Empirical results show that higher-level policymakers’ choice between rules and discretion depends on task-specific costs of drafting contingency-based rules — conditions agents may encounter, and actions required to address them. For policy tasks with higher drafting costs, policymakers are more likely to delegate to lower-level agents discretion over task procedures or set targets of task outputs for ex post oversight.
Forbearance or Control: Dual Impact of State Ownership on Business Compliance
Shengqiao Lin, Harvard University; Xuan Wang, National School of Development, Peking University; Jiayi Hou, Peking University
How does state ownership influence business regulatory compliance? Existing studies offer two contrasting predictions: state-affiliated firms may exploit regulatory forbearance to prioritize profit over compliance, while they may also exhibit greater adherence to regulations due to government intervention in decision-making.
We argue that these two effects coexist and depend on the strength of the connection: strong connections result in greater government control over corporate decisions, leading to higher compliance with regulatory demands. In contrast, weak connections allow firms to benefit from state protection while avoiding interference, thus emboldening them to disregard rules.
Empirically, we test this argument using the case of China’s Cybersecurity Law, enacted in 2016, to examine whether firms with varying degrees of state ownership improved their user data protection in response to regulatory requirements. We draw on two original and comprehensive datasets. First, we use data from third-party auditing platforms to assess the security performance of each historical version of mobile apps among the top 5% most downloaded in China, providing app-month-level information on security vulnerabilities and privacy violations. Second, we utilize China’s Business Registration Database to conduct equity tracing, quantifying the proportion of state capital invested in each app developer, both directly and indirectly.
Difference-in-differences analyses reveal a U-shaped relationship between state ownership and compliance following the enactment of the Cybersecurity Law. Compared to purely private firms, companies with high state ownership quickly adjusted to the new regulations, reducing security vulnerabilities in their apps, limiting user data access and permission requests, and curbing sensitive behaviors. In contrast, firms with limited state ownership exhibited even lower compliance levels than fully private firms. Using variations in direct and indirect state investment, we find that these results reflect both firms’ proactive compliance and the state’s top-down control.
This study extends our understanding of China’s state-business relations, demonstrating that the key issue is not merely whether a business and the state are connected but how they are connected. It also sheds light on how the penetration of China’s state capital into the private sector influences governance outcomes, contributing to broader debates on China’s party-state capitalism.
Hydraulic State: Hydropower Construction and Subnational State Capacity in China
Renhao Ye, School of Government, Peking University
How is state capacity transmitted from the central government to localities? Although scholars have explored various aspects of state-building at the central level, a strong central government alone does not guarantee the success of a state, and few studies have examined how central state capacity is extended to subnational levels. This study explores the sources of subnational state capacity in government-invested infrastructure projects. Using an original county-level dataset that contains over 3,400 hydropower stations constructed between 1953 and 2020 in contemporary China, the findings indicate that the construction of hydropower stations likely strengthens the capacity of penetration and extraction at the county-level. This pattern remains robust through several tests and an instrumental variable approach leveraging topographic variations. A further within-case study suggests that infrastructure projects require establishing grassroots administrative authorities to comprehend and govern the local society and increasing taxation to support construction logistics. Once completed, these ad hoc institutions remain as lasting structures that enhance penetrative and extractive capacity at the county level. These findings highlight how central state capacity is transmitted to subnational levels through infrastructure constructions, offering comparative insights for promoting local political and economic development in developing countries.
Revolution Meets Tradition: Gender Norms in Chinese Criminal Sentencing
Xiaohong Yu, Tsinghua University; Zhihao Xu, Tsinghua University; Zhaoyang Sun, Tsinghua University
This study examines how revolutionary processes influence deeply embedded social norms by analyzing gender disparities in Chinese judicial decision-making. Following Skocpol’s (1979, p. 4) definition of social revolutions as “”rapid, basic transformations of a society’s state and class structures accompanied by class-based revolts from below,”” we investigate how the Chinese Communist Revolution, characterized by intensive ideological transformation and mass mobilization, interacted with traditional gender norms. While modernization theory suggests gradual social and economic development leads to norm evolution, and revolutionary theory emphasizes rapid institutional change, the resilience of traditional norms under revolutionary pressure remains underexplored. This is particularly significant in the Chinese context, where the Communist Revolution explicitly targeted traditional gender relations through systematic propaganda, institutional reforms, and social discipline.
We propose two competing hypotheses about revolutionary impacts on social norms: the destruction hypothesis suggests that revolutionary disruption weakens traditional norms, while the construction hypothesis posits that revolutionary institution-building strengthens new egalitarian norms. By analyzing over 2.5 million criminal cases adjudicated in Chinese courts between 2014-2020, we find that: (1) female defendants receive significantly shorter sentences than male defendants in gender-related cases; (2) this disparity is more pronounced in regions with stronger traditional Confucian influence; (3) the disruptive forces, measured by factors such as warfare or conflict, weaken the sentencing disparities driven by gender norms, while the constructive forces, reflected in the presence of women’s schools, women’s organizations, and regulations promoting women’s rights, have the opposite effect. These findings reveal the complex interaction between revolutionary forces and persistent social norms, contributing to our understanding of how radical social transformation efforts encounter deeply rooted cultural practices.
Of Dragons and Roosters: The Political Economy of Traditional Beliefs in China
Adam Yao Liu, National University of Singapore; Tong Liu, National University of Singapore
We show traditional belief-induced political favouritism and miscoordination in China. Specifically, in an as-if random assignment setting, we find that provincial leaders tend to allocate more resources to cities governed by subordinates with “predestined” birth compatibility, boosting their cities’ growth. We also find that birth incompatibility between city party secretaries and mayors creates potential leadership failure, leading to worse economic outcomes. We buttress these findings with historical archives and contemporary field observations. This paper contributes to a growing literature on the political economy of traditional beliefs, and points to a novel way of studying Chinese political economy—in fact, any political economy with deep cultural foundations.
Historical Roots of Power, Gender, and Governance in China
Thursday, September 11, 2:00 – 3:30 pm
Created Panel
Participants:
(Chair) Erik H. Wang, New York University
(Discussant) Dawn L. Teele, Johns Hopkins University
(Discussant) Yuhua Wang, Harvard University
Session Description:
This panel examines the historical foundations of power dynamics, gender roles, and governance structures in China, offering insights into how these legacies continue to shape political and social realities today. By leveraging innovative methodologies and diverse datasets, the papers collectively illuminate the interplay of gender, bureaucracy, military strategy, and political philosophy in the evolution of Chinese statecraft.
Yinxuan Wang, Erik H. Wang, and Yuchen Xu’s paper, “Ethnic Conflict and the Degradation of Women: Evidence from the Manchu Conquest,” explores how ethnic conflict during the Manchu conquest reinforced gender norms as a form of cultural resistance. Their findings reveal a long-term legacy of declining women’s status, highlighting the intersection of ethnic identity, violence, and gender inequality.
Zhenhuan Lei, Joy Chen, and Xiuyu Li, in their study “Matriarch for the Patriarch: Female Regency in Historical China,” examine the stabilizing role of female regents in imperial China. They demonstrate how empress dowagers mitigated succession crises, providing a unique perspective on how gendered power arrangements contributed to political stability.
Cheng Cheng and Daniel Mattingly’s paper, “Mastering the Mandarins: Autocratic Control of the Bureaucracy in Imperial China,” investigates the Yongzheng Emperor’s strategies to manage bureaucratic networks. By analyzing a vast trove of correspondence, they reveal how autocrats consolidate power by suppressing bureaucratic elites with cross-sectoral influence.
Linchuan Zhang’s work, “Position Assignments and Military Loyalty: KMT Officers in the Chinese Civil War,” shifts focus to the military, exploring how strategic position assignments influenced officer loyalty. The paper sheds light on how authoritarian regimes navigate the loyalty-competence dilemma in times of crisis.
Finally, Shuyi Yu, in “The Curse of the Mandate of Heaven: A Model of Power Centralization,” employs a game-theoretic approach to analyze how the political philosophy of the Mandate of Heaven shaped China’s centralized power structure. This paper provides a historical lens on the divergence between European and Chinese political development.
Together, these papers offer a deep exploration of historical processes that have shaped governance, gender norms, and political authority in China, enriching our understanding of the long-term legacies of power. The panel promises to stimulate insightful discussions on how history continues to inform contemporary politics and societal structures.
Papers:
Ethnic Conflict and the Degradation of Women: Evidence from the Manchu Conquest
Yinxuan Wang, New York University; Erik H. Wang, New York University
This paper explores the intersectionality of ethnonationalism and gender in the context of ethnic conflict and foreign conquest, which are powerful forces that shape social structures and political behavior. We argue that conquests by another ethnic group can prompt the conquered, unable to resist militarily, to emphasize the cultural distinctiveness of their identity as a form of self-affirmation or resistance. The elevation and reinforcement of traditional practices, as a form of resistance to the Manchus, could lead to further degradation of women’s status by entrenching gender norms within traditional cultural practices that placed women in subordinate roles. We test this theory by exploring the military conquest of China in the 17th century by the Manchus, a minority ethnic group that ended the Chinese Ming Dynasty.
Specifically, we study how the Manchu’s military activities reshaped gender norms. We compile a unique dataset of Manchu military campaigns, including large-scale massacres, forced submission, and other forms of violence at the county level. To measure women’s status and gender norms, we extract over 43,000 records of chaste martyrs from historical texts, analyze poetry with content about women, and study women-authored poems using conventional natural language processing techniques and large language model-based methods. Additionally, we incorporate contemporary demographic data on sex ratio at birth from Chinese population censuses to trace the long-term legacy of the conquest for gender imbalances. We also construct measures of contemporary gender attitudes from large corpora of social media text. Our identification strategies include a difference-in-differences design exploiting variations in the timing and intensity of the conquest across localities and a geographic regression discontinuity design leveraging variations in military activities, such as pauses in campaigns and negotiated surrenders.
Our findings reveal that exposure to Manchu military activities led to a significant decline in women’s status, as evidenced by a marked rise in the number of chaste martyrs recorded. This increase reflects heightened social expectations for women to conform to the Confucian ideals of virtue and chastity. This change relates to the Chinese population’s cultural response to the conquest, with gender norms emerging as an important means of asserting ethnic identity and cultural distinctiveness in opposition to the Manchus. We also examine the persistence of this negative effect on women’s status by analyzing contemporary demographic and attitudinal patterns. The Manchu conquest and the Chinese reaction to what was seen as the humiliation of foreign rule cast a long shadow over the status of women.
These findings contribute to broader discussions on the intersections of ethnic identity, gender norms, and the long-term legacies of violence. They highlight how the assertion of ethnic identity through cultural resistance to military conquest could lead to further degradation of women.
Matriarch for the Patriarch: Female Regency in Historical China
Zhenhuan Lei, Shanghai Jiao Tong University; Joy Chen, Renmin University of China; Xiuyu Li, New York University
Smooth leadership succession is essential for regime stability. One grave challenge to the succession problem is the absence of an adult heir who can rule the state. In such cases, a regency arrangement is often implemented, where a minor is designated as the ruler, and a regent governs in the ruler’s name. This arrangement, common in both historical and contemporary regimes, involves a two-sided commitment problem: the regent(s) cannot credibly commit to preserving the minor ruler’s authority, while the young ruler cannot commit to keeping the regent(s) safe once he is in power. This paper argues that regency by the empress dowager—typically the mother or grandmother of the child emperor—mitigates this problem in a unique way. In imperial China, where cultural norms barred women from assuming the official title of head of state, the empress dowager’s incentives were more closely aligned with the interests of the young emperor than with those of other political contenders, such as powerful ministers. Using original data on over one hundred child emperors in imperial China, we test this hypothesis and find that female regency is associated with greater political stability. Specifically, child emperors were less likely to be deposed and more likely to assume personal rule, when the empress dowager served as regent. These findings are reinforced by an instrumental variable analysis exploiting plausibly exogenous variations in the availability of female candidates for regency.
Mastering the Mandarins: Autocratic Control of the Bureaucracy in Imperial China
Cheng Cheng, New York University; Daniel Mattingly, Yale University
How do autocrats control the bureaucracies they govern? We argue that autocrats face a fundamental tradeoff when allowing bureaucrats to form strong networks. On one hand, strong networks enhance the officials’ ability to maintain order; on the other, they pose a threat to the ruler by concentrating power outside the leader’s control. To demonstrate this, we leverage an original dataset of 26,000 pieces of correspondence personally reviewed by the Yongzheng Emperor of Qing China over a thirteen-year period, written in both Manchu and Mandarin. These records offer an unusually fine-grained view of the emperor’s efforts to consolidate imperial control over the bureaucracy. Combining this with data on bureaucratic appointments in central and provincial government positions, as well as biographical data, we identify networks between bureaucrats based on shared work experience and marriage ties. We find that the emperor systematically purged officials when their networks extended beyond a single sector—such as the military, civilian, or royal household departments—suggesting that these multi-sector networks were perceived as potential threats. Our findings contribute to a broader understanding of how authoritarian rulers manage bureaucratic elites by strategically eliminating alternative centers of power.
Position Assignments and Military Loyalty: KMT Officers in the Chinese Civil War
Linchuan Zhang, Emory University
Why do some officers in authoritarian militaries loyally fight for the regime while others exhibit disloyalty? Focusing on officers’ military careers, I propose a theoretical framework that addresses an underappreciated factor in officers’ decision-making regarding loyalty or disloyalty: their positions within the military hierarchy. Officers holding important positions, such as commanders of core combat units, are more likely to remain loyal to the regime due to the existing resources and benefits associated with their critical roles, as well as the significant risks of marginalization if they defect to the opposition or resign from the military. Moreover, the effect of position on loyalty is conditional on faction affiliation: insiders, whose loyalty comes more from personal ties with the regime leader, are less influenced by position assignments, while military officers who are outsiders to the leader’s inner circle will be more motivated to remain loyal when assigned key positions. Consequently, offering critical positions can be a useful mechanism for regime leaders to manage loyalty, beyond well-studied other factors like officers’ personal ties and competence. Empirically, I study the case of Kuomintang (KMT) military elites during the Chinese Civil War (1946-1949) and establish an original dataset containing detailed information on over 800 KMT generals. Statistical results show that general-level KMT officers assigned to commander positions at the outbreak of the war were about 48% less likely to defect from the regime leader, Generalissimo Chiang Kai-Shek, after controlling for military career characteristics and demographic backgrounds. Furthermore, the influence of assigning key positions on officers’ loyalty varied across their faction affiliation: insiders maintained a relatively high level of loyalty regardless of the positions they held, while outsiders were substantively more loyal when being assigned commander positions. This study highlights the importance of position assignments in shaping military loyalty, an aspect relatively overlooked by existing studies on civil-military relations. Furthermore, by disaggregating the military into individuals instead of considering it as a unitary actor, this study sheds light on how individual officers’ decision-making on the battlefield collectively shapes the course of armed conflicts and their resolution.
The Curse of the Mandate of Heaven: A Model of Power Centralization
Shuyi Yu, University of Chicago
Europe and China followed divergent paths of development during the premodern period. Europe nurtured representative institutions and secure property rights that facilitated the rise of modern capitalism, whereas the growth of commercial interests in China was persistently stifled. The divergence can be attributed, at least in part, to the more centralized power structure of the Chinese state at the dawn of the premodern era. To account for this distinction, I propose that China’s early adoption of the political philosophy of the Mandate of Heaven, inadvertently contributed to the steady trend of power centralization towards the emperor. In substantiating this argument, I develop a game-theoretical model of authoritarian power sharing, demonstrating how the threat of peasant revolution can alter the power distribution in favor of the emperor. I also present historical narratives to corroborate this finding.
Public Opinion and Social Dynamics in Contemporary China
Thursday, September 11, 4:00 – 5:30pm
Created Panel
Participants:
(Chair) Karl Yan, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
(Discussant) Haifeng Huang, The Ohio State University
(Discussant) Daniel Mattingly, Yale University
Session Description:
This panel explores the intricate dynamics of public opinion, political behavior and governance in authoritarian contexts, with a particular focus on China. Through experimental and survey-based methodologies, the papers provide fresh insights into how citizens interact with political institutions, interpret civic engagement, and respond to social and class grievances within the constraints of an authoritarian regime.
Li Shao, Juan Du, Rongbin Han, and Dongshu Liu’s paper, “Putnam’s Puzzle: How Civic Engagement Erodes Immigration Approval in China,” challenges the conventional wisdom that civic engagement fosters inclusivity. Using pre-registered experiments, they reveal that under autocratic constraints, immigrants’ civic participation can erode public support for immigration, driven by perceptions of regime co-optation and competition for resources.
Diana Fu and Jessica C. Teets, in “Political Attitudes of Chinese Gen-Z Students in North America,” investigate the socialization of Chinese students educated in authoritarian contexts who later study in North America. Their research uncovers nuanced patterns of value adoption, with students embracing some democratic ideals, such as freedom of speech, while retaining others rooted in authoritarian norms.
Ziwen Zu’s paper, “Selective Justice: Nationwide Experiment with China’s Legal Service Hotlines,” delves into the role of technocrats in public service delivery. Through a field experiment involving over 2,200 calls to legal aid hotlines, the study demonstrates how political sensitivity shapes the quality of legal assistance, highlighting the tension between professional ethics and regime stability in authoritarian systems.
Manfred Elfstrom, Tianguang Meng, and Yu Yan, in “Cross-Class Solidarity in China: Experimental Evidence,” explore the potential for cross-class alliances in urban China. Using a pre-registered survey experiment, they assess the extent to which different social groups sympathize with each other’s grievances, shedding light on the prospects for collective action in a rapidly changing society.
Finally, Jinfeng Wu and Yongshun Cai’s “Individualized Grievances in China” examines how citizens process grievances against state authorities. Based on longitudinal survey data, their findings reveal that grievances are often individualized rather than collectivized, reducing systemic pressures on the regime but leaving unanswered questions about their potential to escalate under severe conditions.
Together, these papers collectively reveal how political attitudes and social dynamics are shaped by both structural factors and individual perceptions under authoritarianism. They illuminate how authoritarian institutions mediate civic engagement, value formation and social interaction. By integrating experimental rigor with diverse topics, this panel offers valuable insights into the mechanisms that sustain or challenge regime stability in China.
Papers:
Putnam’s Puzzle: How Civic Engagement Erodes Immigration Approval in China
Li Shao, Zhejiang University; Juan Du, East China Normal University; Rongbin Han, University of Georgia; Dongshu Liu, City University of Hong Kong
Conventional wisdom suggests that civic engagement fosters trust and cooperation. This implies that immigrants can gain the native’s support through active participation in social and political affairs. However, in autocracies where engagement is constrained and guided by the regime, the effects are less clear. We propose that citizens in autocracies may interpret immigrants’ civic engagement as a demonstration of citizenry spirit, window dressing, or regime co-optation effort. Using two pre-registered experiments in China, we find that the latter two forms of interpretation dominate the results. Despite of government advocacy, immigrants’ civic engagement erodes, rather than boosts, public support for immigration. Identity concerns reflected by racial bias and threats over competition for regime resources explain the mechanism. These findings reflect that the native does not favor immigrants’ civic engagement when they interpret government-controlled civic engagement as a system to distribute spoils. It contributes to the literature on both immigration attitude and civic engagement in autocracies.
Political Attitudes of Chinese Gen-Z Students in North America
Jessica C. Teets, Middlebury College; Diana Fu, University of Toronto
Do youth who were raised and educated in authoritarian states become socialized to embrace democratic values of social equality, pluralism, and primacy of political rights (de Tocqueville 1835; Almond and Verba 1963; Putnam 1993)? Or do they retain or even deepen their commitments to authoritarian values and norms, such as social hierarchy, anti-pluralism, and the primacy of subsistence rights over political rights (Fei 1992; Perry 2008)? Recent research (Afield, Gerring et al 2024) finds that college education promotes more support for democratic values around the world. We study whether this socialization process works for students who have civics education in high school in China but then attend university in North America to examine potential channels of socialization. We use focus groups and surveys in two locations – the US and Canada – and find nuanced socialization with civic engagement and freedom of media/speech as the most supported values.
Selective Justice: Nationwide Experiment with China’s Legal Service Hotlines
Ziwen Zu, University of California, San Diego
Public service delivery in authoritarian regimes often is characterized by biases stemming from ideological, partisan, and ethnic preferences, as well as organizational priorities, state capacity, and bureaucratic discretion. While much research has explored these drivers, the role of technocrats—apolitical professionals in fields like law, public health, and economics—remains underexamined. Unlike career bureaucrats, technocrats prioritize professionalism and often operate autonomously, especially in contexts where governments outsource services to the private sector. This autonomy, while enhancing efficiency, introduces challenges such as principal-agent issues and information asymmetry, which can conflict with bureaucratic interests. Understanding these dynamics is critical for improving public service delivery. This paper addresses these gaps through the first nationwide field experiment with Chinese legal aid lawyers working on the 12348 hotlines, a central element of China’s “rule of law” initiative. Staffed by junior lawyers employed part-time by local governments but primarily working as private practitioners, the hotline exemplifies public-private partnerships in public service delivery. The study investigates how organizational and private incentives influence the quality of legal aid and explores strategies to improve public service efficiency in an authoritarian context. In the experiment, I implemented a two-factorial design: (1) randomizing the political sensitivity levels of legal inquiries, and (2) varying the incentives provided to legal aid lawyers for delivering their services to politically sensitive inquiries. The first treatment examines whether legal professionals exhibit less sincerity when handling politically sensitive inquiries. The second treatment randomizes private and institutional incentives offered to lawyers to improve the quality of their legal services. Private incentives include pressures from bureaucratic oversight and intrinsic motivations driven by moral values and ethical principles embedded in professionalism. Institutional incentives, by contrast, align with the primary objective of the authoritarian regime in initiating the hotline: maintaining regime stability by addressing public grievances and demonstrating responsiveness. In total, a team of five professional correspondents conducted 2,200 calls to over 100 local 12348 hotlines across more than 200 cities in China. To measure treatment effects, I employed a combination of human coding and computational methods to analyze conservation audios. I further connect the experimental data with unique observational data. I also collected posts from local bar association WeChat accounts, which generally fall into three categories: (1) professional knowledge updates, (2) news about government and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) oversight of legal professionals, such as Party directives, and (3) professional activities like networking and community-building events. These posts were analyzed to assess the degree of community bonding within professional associations and the extent of political control over legal professionals. Additionally, I utilized registration data containing the full biographies of all licensed Chinese lawyers to calculate the local Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for the legal services market. The HHI, a measure of market concentration, reflects the relative size of firms in the industry and serves as an indicator of competition levels. This metric was used to evaluate the competitive dynamics among local lawyers. The experiment reveals that state-sponsored lawyers in China deliver lower-quality responses to politically sensitive inquiries, such as administrative litigation, labor disputes, and land issues, compared to less sensitive topics like civil disputes. These lawyers often use strategies like ambiguity, avoidance, and distraction to reflect implicit bias, impeding individuals’ efforts to seek justice. Institutional incentives within China’s authoritarian regime, designed to maintain stability and suppress collective action, discourage sincere legal assistance in sensitive cases. Conversely, private incentives, including bureaucratic oversight and professional mobilization, motivate lawyers to provide clearer and more genuine aid. Among these, professional mobilization proves to be the most effective strategy for encouraging legal technocrats to assist citizens challenging the regime. Heterogeneity analyses show that institutional incentives have stronger effects in cities with higher levels of political control over lawyers, while professional mobilization is more effective in areas with greater professional community-building activities. Additionally, increased competition in the legal services market generates positive externalities by attracting more high-quality lawyers to participate in legal aid programs.
Cross-Class Solidarity in China: Experimental Evidence
Manfred Elfstrom, University of British Columbia, Okanagan; Tianguang Meng, Tsinghua University; Yu Yan, Beijing Normal University
When do people from different classes support each other’s demands? Classic studies in comparative politics and sociology treat cross-class alliances as key determinants of states’ long-term political trajectories. For instance, Barrington Moore (1966) famously argues that the combination of a commercializing landed elite, and a strong bourgeoisie (and tightly circumscribed crown) yields political and economic liberalism. Gøsta Esping-Andersen (1990) meanwhile posits that cooperation between workers and the middle class expands welfare states. To date, however, there has been little survey research conducted on feelings of sympathy or solidarity between contemporary social groups. Even less attention has been devoted to cross-class connections in places like China that are rapidly urbanizing but lack electoral outlets for popular frustrations. This paper uses a pre-registered experiment attached to an in-person survey of 5,000-plus city-based Chinese citizens to examine the degree to which middle class urbanites (students and office employees), formally employed factory workers, and more precariously employed or self-employed workers in emerging industries like food delivery are receptive to each other’s grievances. We draw on a variety of innovative measures, such as photos of different work settings, establishing respondents’ class positions and then randomly exposing respondents to snippets of news reports about the demands made by different groups, before probing into the respondents’ sympathies for those demands and for collective action toward social change more generally. In particular, we examine whether Chinese citizens are more supportive of people they perceive to be part of their own group, people they perceive to be less fortunate than themselves, or people they perceive to be their social superiors. The results offer fresh insights into emerging blocs that may prove consequential in a country undergoing important transformations.
Individualized Grievances in China
Jinfeng Wu, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST); Yongshun Cai, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST)
Popular grievances do not automatically translate into collective or even individual action, but pent-up grievances remain to be a threat to authoritarian governments that are sensitive to collective actions because these actions may escalate into disruptive ones. This study examines to what extent citizens’ grievances against state authorities may become pent-up. Based on four waves of surveys in China, we find that citizen grievances against local state authorities reduce their trust in the political system, but they may not become pent-up. Instead, citizen grievances are likely to be individualized because their grievances neither last for a long time nor diffuse in society. Individualized grievances reduce the pressure faced by the government, but it remains to be researched whether this finding is valid if citizen grievances become more common or more severe.
APSA Department Chairs’ Mini-Conference & Luncheon (Friday, September 12)
APSA Department Members are invited to attend the Department Chairs’ Mini-Conference and Luncheon, “Political Science Departmental Leadership in Turbulent Times,“ at the 2025 APSA Annual Meeting & Exhibition.
Suitable for new and current Department leaders, the 2025 Department Chairs’ Mini-Conference and Luncheon explores political science departmental leadership in a changing higher education landscape, offers support to department chairs, graduate directors, and undergraduate directors, and provides professional networking opportunities. The mini-conference theme is “Political Science Departmental Leadership in Turbulent Times.”
Political science departments face new challenges given the evolving US political climate. Join us for the 2025 Department Chairs Mini-Conference focused on leading a political science department during turbulent times. Each roundtable will feature department leaders from diverse institutional types and geographic regions. More information can be found here.
Department Chairs’ Mini-Conference Roundtable 1: Adapting to the New Budget and Funding Climate
Friday, September 12, 8:00 – 9:30am
Roundtable
Participants:
(Chair) Bennett Grubbs, American Political Science Association
(Presenter) Shamira M. Gelbman, Wabash College
(Presenter) Philip Habel, University of Alabama
(Presenter) Miki Caul Kittilson, Arizona State University
(Presenter) Natalie Masuoka, University of California, Los Angeles
(Presenter) Carolyn M. Warner, University of Nevada Reno
(Presenter) Alice M. Jackson, Morgan State University
Session Description:
More information TBA.
Department Chairs’ Mini-Conference Roundtable 2: Supporting International Scholars and Academic Freedom of Speech
Friday, September 12, 10:00 – 11:30am
Roundtable
Participants:
(Chair) Bennett Grubbs, American Political Science Association
(Presenter) Shamira M. Gelbman, Wabash College
(Presenter) Philip Habel, University of Alabama
(Presenter) Miki Caul Kittilson, Arizona State University
(Presenter) Natalie Masuoka, University of California, Los Angeles
(Presenter) Carolyn M. Warner, University of Nevada Reno
(Presenter) Alice M. Jackson, Morgan State University
Session Description:
More information TBA.
Department Chairs’ Mini-Conference Roundtable 3: Legal Strategies and Support
Friday, September 12, 12:00 – 1:30pm
Roundtable
Participants:
(Chair) Bennett Grubbs, American Political Science Association
(Presenter) Shamira M. Gelbman, Wabash College
(Presenter) Philip Habel, University of Alabama
(Presenter) Miki Caul Kittilson, Arizona State University
(Presenter) Natalie Masuoka, University of California, Los Angeles
(Presenter) Carolyn M. Warner, University of Nevada Reno
(Presenter) Alice M. Jackson, Morgan State University
Session Description:
More information TBA.
Mini-Conference on Latin American and Latinx Political Thought (Friday, September 12)
Co-sponsored by Division 32: Race, Ethnicity, and Politics & Division 2: Foundations of Political Theory
This mini-conference convenes scholars who work in the growing field of Latin American and Latinx Political Thought. Building on its successes in previous years, the 2025 mini-conference tackles questions of Latin American and Latinx Thought through a wide range of approaches that speak to different levels of analysis and distinct sites of inquiry: from state-centric approaches to fiction, from activism to double-edged processes. The first panel focuses on the role of the state and immigration law in shaping racial dynamics and the figure of the immigrant. In contrast, the second panel brings together scholars who examine fiction written by BIPOC writers to unearth the ways in which colonial discourses shape people’s imagined futures. The third panel brings together papers who discuss the underbelly of seemingly desirable processes. And the last panel gathers scholars of political activism. The program also includes a roundtable on the status of theoretically informed research on racial and ethnic politics. The goal of the program as a whole is to encourage interdisciplinary conversation on political theory research which attends to the political innovations of Latin American and Latinx contexts.
(Un)desirable Immigrants and the State
(Un)desirable Immigrants and the State
Friday, September 12, 8:00am – 9:30am
Created Panel with Virtual Participation
Participants:
(Chair) Juliet Hooker, Brown University
(Discussant) Yuna Blajer de la Garza, Loyola University, Chicago
Papers:
Moral Claims, Racial Frames: Haiti, Deservingness, and Immigration Reform
Nathalia Justo, Bowdoin College
This conference paper examines how notions of deservingness shape engagement with immigration law, legitimizing and obscuring racial hierarchies under the guise of morality. Drawing on postcolonial and decolonial approaches to the relationship between ethics and law, the paper first conceptualizes deservingness as a disciplinary and ideological apparatus. Through this framework, states and powerful actors subsume racial differences by making rights contingent on the morality of claimants, thereby deflecting attention from their political responsibility for structural inequality and injustice. Then, departing from the experiences of noncitizens from Haiti to advocate for comprehensive immigration reform in the United States, the paper demonstrates how deservingness scripts compel noncitizens to rely on narratives of merit and victimhood to claim rights while disincentivizing them from denouncing racial hierarchies and their ties to histories of U.S. intervention and (post)colonial legacies.
As a result, the paper argues that deservingness not only does more harm than good in its selective inclusion of noncitizens from Central and Latin America but also diverts attention from the relationship between U.S. immigration law and foreign policy.
World War I and the U.S. Colonial Soldier System
Alfredo Gonzalez, University of California, Santa Barbara
Due to its inclusive language, the World War I U.S. military naturalization law offered an unencumbered pathway to legal citizenship to more than a quarter-million immigrant service members. Although this was the most inclusive period of political incorporation in American history, the World War I policy simultaneously established a colonial soldier system that separated racially eligible immigrants from colonial foreigners, specifically among Filipinos and Puerto Ricans. In this paper, I recast Mario Barrera’s colonial labor system framework along with Elizabeth Cohen’s political economy of time to explain the development of a colonial soldier system in the U.S. military. This index case study locates the World War I naturalization law as the critical juncture for U.S. martial citizenship that subordinated colonial service by hierarchically distinguishing between perceived assimilable and unassimilable service members. Filipinos and Puerto Ricans were segregated because of their racial and ethnic origins through three-year service requirements that Black and White immigrant service members were exempted from. The three-year service requirements for Filipino and Puerto Rican troops are a form of time theft akin to wage theft under a dual wage system due to postponing colonial subjects from exercising political rights available to other non-citizens for performing the same labor. The colonial soldier system continues to characterize military service requirements today.
American Leviathan: The U.S. Migration State within Racial Authoritarianism
Ramon Garibaldo Valdez, University of Chicago
Operating via a myriad governmentality technologies, from shadowy datasets to private prisons, the immigration state’s contours seem to spread across U.S. government institutions and policy domains. In this paper, I show that the immigration state’s racial authoritarian capability has been reproduced via decentralized power relations that in recognition of the state’s incapacity to exercise full control over its borders, rely on seemingly colorblind communicative violence reproduced along lines of race to maintain an acquiescent, adversely excluded migrant population. Such an expansion in state capacity has taken place via four mechanisms: discretion, (racial) deniability, delegation, and deterrence.
The paper’s second part demonstrates that the immigration state has expanded its illiberal capabilities by burrowing itself further in democratic politics. Building on Yanilda Gonzales’ theorizing of authoritarian policing, I show that following the colorblind liberalization of immigration policy, the immigration state has come to (a) prioritize political interests over policy outcomes, (b) feature weak external accountability, (c) rely on an exceptional legal basis.
Altogether, the paper provides a state-centered account of immigration enforcement, as it has developed in a polity whereby exposure to and protection from violence has been stratified along lines of race.
Sanctuary as Border Work: A Phenomenological Approach
Martha Balaguera, University of Toronto
Amidst fear-mongering discourses that criminalize Latin American migrants, civil society in Mexico and the United States has stepped up to counter hate speech and harsh policies cracking down on irregularized migration. There has been a revival of “sanctuary,” whereby a range of actors like churches, universities, local communities, and municipal jurisdictions oppose the official exclusion of migrants. They do so by protecting migrants from such enforcement practices as raids, detentions, and deportations. The emerging literature has thus praised the radical possibilities opened by sanctuary, whether as a “fugitive” emancipatory practice (Sostaita 2024), or as a grassroots politics that confronts border violence (Paik 2020). In this essay, I offer a different approach, building on critical perspectives about “casing” (Soss 2021). Instead of using the concept of sanctuary as a settled category able to contain empirical phenomena, I suggest seeing sanctuary through unconventional analytical lenses to generate new knowledge. Concretely, I argue that sanctuary can be studied as a form of border work and not just as a state of protection or an oppositional politics. Based on a phenomenological account of migrants’ experiences of sanctuary, I demonstrate the resemblances and convergences between civil society and state border work, unsettling the status of the state as the primary, sovereign entity regulating human behavior. My study extends scholarly critiques of the neat separation between state and civil society to the border (Mitchel 1988; Gramsci 1971). Ultimately, I highlight the structuring effects of sanctuary, even as it continues to be reclaimed for migrant justice.
State Powers and Double-Edged Processes
Friday, September 12, 12:00 – 1:30pm
Created Panel
Participants:
(Chair) Andrea Pitts, University at Buffalo
(Discussant) Antonio Y. Vazquez Arroyo, Rutgers University
Papers:
Defying State Territoriality: Indigenous “Living Territorialities” in Brazil
Karla Mundim, John Jay College; Paul M. B. Gutierrez, Boston University
In this paper, we explore competing conceptions of territoriality in light of ongoing threats to Indigenous peoples in Brazil, as exemplified by the Marco Temporal legal thesis. We focus on three dimensions: (1) Indigenous evolving and mutually constitutive ties to place vs. the state’s emphasis on “original” land ownership; (2) Indigenous overlapping relationships to place vs. the state’s prioritization of exclusive territorial claims; (3) Indigenous material and immaterial spatial ties vs. the state’s ahistorical evidentiary demands on communities undergoing land demarcation. Based on original interviews with Brazilian Indigenous leaders and allies, we show that in contrast to prevalent state-centric approaches, they articulate what we label “living territorialities”: dynamic understandings of territory wherein Indigenous peoples “territorialize” new spaces. Such “living territorialities” not only better account for the effects of ongoing historical violence against Indigenous communities but also inform new ideals for relating to the earth against the growing ramifications of capitalism.
Indigeneity, Racemaking, and the Transpacific Slave Trade
Isaac Gabriel Salgado, Trinity College
Accounts of the development of race are often situated in either the context of the enslavement of African peoples and/or the expropriation of Indigenous peoples’ lands in the Americas. While these processes were certainly pivotal, this paper argues that attending to the place of enslaved Asians in New Spain (colonial Mexico) allows us to gain a more precise understanding of how race developed and operated in the early modern world–and indeed of the racialization of Black and Indigenous peoples themselves. I focus on the transpacific slave trade from the Philippines to New Spain throughout the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. Specifically, I am interested in how the Spanish Crowns’ designation of peoples in the Spanish Philippines as “indios” (“Indians”) paradoxically enabled them to contest their enslavement following the passage of the New Laws of 1542. By tracing the shifting status of enslaved Asians in New Spain, I argue that we can better understand the relationship between nascent racial categories and the structural positions racialized peoples were made to inhabit.
Mestizaje as Erasure: Racelessness, Homogeneity, Improvement
Didier Zúñiga, University of Alberta
Through an examination of the emergence and consolidation of mestizaje in Mexico, this essay challenges the prevalent view of mestizaje as providing the conditions of possibility for decolonial and anti-racist futures. I situate mestizaje within postrevolutionary Mexico and show how its ideologues framed it by mirroring the formation of the Western imaginary. This involved a retrospective curation process that served to both ‘purify’ the Mesoamerican past and elevate selectively appropriated histories and cultures to undergird Mexico’s present and future national identity. Contrary to the deep-seated idea that mestizaje provided the basis for the subversion of race-based hierarchies, I argue that it served as an instrument of Indigenous erasure. I also dispute the widely held belief that mestizaje was a peaceful process through which willful and consenting peoples mixed each other. Moreover, I show that mestizaje is cast as the means through which Mesoamerican people can ascend into modernity, which is yoked to the idea of ‘whiteness’ as a normative rather than purely phenotypical ideal. Finally, I examine the intertwinement of mestizaje with technologies of improvement whose goal is to move Mexico towards a progressively ‘higher’ nation. I ultimately argue that mestizaje is used to ‘improve’ peoples and territories through developmental prescriptions that generate homogeneity and uniformity in human and more-than-human worlds.
Terrorists or Citizens? Cartels and the Trouble with a Policing Military
Itzel Garcia, Cal Poly Pomona
On September 25th, 2024, the Mexican Senate approved a constitutional amendment to give control of the country’s national guard, a force created by former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to fight crime and improve civilian security, over to its military. Mexico is not the only country in Latin America to enact strong hand policies against organized crime. In 2022 for example President Bukele of El Salvador suspended the right of free association and the right to legal counsel of citizens, allowing the state to conduct mass arrests of people suspected of participating in gang activity. Similarly in Ecuador, President Noboa recently invoked emergency powers that enabled him to advance legal reforms (including extraditions, harsh sentencing and gun restrictions) aimed at curtailing organized crime in the country.
Some supporters of these approaches against organized crime adopt what I call the argument from sovereignty, which contends that these strong measures are appropriate responses to gangs and cartels because of the threats to state sovereignty and stability they pose. According to this argument, gangs and cartels are not merely domestic criminal enterprises threatening civilian security, but also terrorist organizations that challenge state sovereignty by fostering economic and political insecurity through violent actions. Focusing on the Mexican case, in this paper I detail the argument for sovereignty and show that while it succeeds in conceptually capturing the unique threats that cartels pose to the state, it nevertheless fails to justify the move to hand domestic policing duties over to the military because (1) it fails to recognize that sometimes cartels appear to be more of a basic institution of the state than a threat to it and (2) in treating people who participate in organized crime as state terrorist the argument perpetuates the problem of downgraded agency by treating them passive victims of organized crime or as enemies to be destroyed and not as full moral agents that may be important allies in securing safety.
Political Theory, History, and the Study of Race beyond the Behavioralist Turn
Friday, September 12, 2:00 – 3:30pm
Created Panel
Participants:
(Chair) Fred Lee (University of Connecticut)
| Presenter: Da’Von Anthony Boyd (William and Mary) |
| Presenter: María Méndez Gutiérrez (University of Toronto) |
| Presenter: Arturo Chang (University of Toronto) |
Race, Empire, and Worlds Otherwise in BIPOC Speculative Fiction
Friday, September 12, 4:00 – 5:30pm
Created Panel
Participants:
(Chair) Adriana Alfaro, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
(Discussant) Adriana Alfaro, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
Papers:
The Monstrosity of Sub-Imperialism in Bong Joon-ho’s “The Host/괴물”
Fred Lee, University of Connecticut
Bong Joon-ho’s 괴물/The Host (2006) features a not-quite-giant monster born of US military waste poured into the Han River. Noting the similarities of this scenario to the Albert MacFarlane incident (2000), scholars have productively explored the film as a critique of the priorities (so-called “incompetencies”) of the ROK government, especially as these are shaped by the US empire. This essay develops an underdeveloped aspect of this critique: the film portrays the ROK-US alliance as a sub-imperial alliance, where the “junior partner” is at a minimum supportive of and at times an active participant in the “senior partner’s” imperialist projects. My key claim is that when the South Korean government in the film unleashes “Agent Yellow” upon ordinary Koreans, this is an allegory of how South Korea’s involvement in the US war in Vietnam has “come home to roost.” Here I am particularly interested in how Bong’s film interfaces with Latin American thought on how subimperialism works as well as Caribbean thought on the identification of colonialism = fascism.
Rita Indiana and Ken Liu on Aesthetic Entanglements against the Order of Empire
Andrea Pitts, University at Buffalo
This presentation analyzes Ken Liu’s collection of short stories, The Paper Menagerie and Other Stories (2016), and Rita Indiana’s La mucama de Omicunlé (2015) to explore each works’ challenges to forms of imperial racial dominance among diasporic communities impacted by colonial and imperial violence. Liu’s stories largely focus on Chinese and Chinese American relations to U.S. and Japanese forms of imperial power, whereas Indiana explores ecological, religious, and gender-based violence in the Dominican Republic. Both authors develop characters and stories that rely on sensual, perceptual shifts to challenge Eurocentric liberal fantasies of white racial superiority and cultural order. Specifically, both authors develop various scenes that involve practices like communal eating, sexual intimacy, and game play that feature across their stories to remap and reorient their characters’ aesthetic relationships to imperial power. While seductive at times, the attempts to direct their characters towards the material gains of white supremacy and imperial dominance are often thwarted by possibilities for non-individualized conceptions of erotic, embodied relationships to collective futurity. In this vein, this presentation reads their respective works as negotiating the aesthetics of imperial power and anti-imperial networks of resistance and refusal.
There’s No Place like Home, Right?
Andrea Dionne Warmack, Ursinus College
This project explores two dominant themes of home and the way these orientations evict Black life: home as acquired territory (where acquisition is displacement or theft) and home as geography and relation. I take up Merleau-Ponty’s concept of the human subject to articulate the major features of settler logics of home. For others on Turtle Island, home is a landed relation that exceeds the imperial grasp of settler logic. Both orientations take seriously the concept of home as a fixed location, and home is important because it is subject-creating and subject-affirming. The project of America is one that evicts American Black folks materially and psychically. Yet rather than frame these evictions solely in terms of loss or lack, this project argues that American Black people engage in a being-in-the-world otherwise that includes a distinct orientation toward the concept of home. I propose that this orientation is (also) a practice of “homing,” a robust, transformative, and ethical praxis that is not exhausted by the constant evictions of anti-Blackness and the American project. This paper will look at the work of Octavia Butler, Lorraine Hansberry, and Toni Morrison to describe and explore this practice.
The Inextricable Dystopic/Utopic Politics of Black Futurity
Devonya N. Havis, University at Buffalo, SUNY Buffalo
This project will resource N.K. Jemisin and political philosophers such as Charles Mills to theorize and explore possible futures where one might practice freedom even while existing under conditions of unfreedom and constraint. As such, the project points toward how one might understand living under racialized conditions of white supremacist, settler colonialism and empire as an existence that is more than oppression. By emphasizing the teachings offered by those who must become skillful at ‘creating in the desert;’ namely those who use creativity, innovation, and aesthetic practice to transpose existing conditions, the project provides a model for dystopic/utopic conceptions of freedom and justice that are otherwise. Reading N.K. Jemisin’s essay and short story anthology How Long ‘Til Black Future Month and her Emergency Skin short story, this project explores points where fiction and political manifesto converge as modes of theorizing possible futures where people of color not only exist but also engage in generative lived practices that give rise to sites and spaces of non-subordinate existence.
Mini-Conference on Green Industrial Policy and the Environment (Saturday, September 13)
Sponsored by Division 6: Political Economy
Governments around the world are intensifying their efforts to make the global economy more sustainable, placing industrial policy at the center of this transformation. Countries are investing billions of dollars in incentives for businesses developing future-defining green technologies, such as electric vehicles and solar panels. This mini-conference brings together scholars from diverse sub-disciplines and geographic regions to evaluate the political economy of green industrial policy and its role in leading the way for the green energy transition. It offers a comprehensive exploration of the evolving landscape of green industrial policy, from domestic political challenges to international dynamics, providing an opportunity to explore key challenges, successes, and lessons from around the world.
The conference features five carefully curated panels. The first panel explores how countries can build domestic political support for green industrial policy programs, with a focus on engaging Republicans in the U.S. Morton, Dolsak, and Prakash analyze whether the IRA increased support for Republican candidates despite its lack of Republican backing in Congress. Benkler studies how non-partisan factors, such as renewable energy attributes specific to Texas districts, influence Republican attitudes toward green projects. Wu tests how messaging by co-partisans can shift Republican viewpoints on green policies using pre-registered experiments. Finally, Cao and Zhao investigate firms’ preferences for green industrial policies, including carbon border adjustments and the Green New Deal.
The second panel shifts attention to the potential losers of green industrial policy and the risk of public backlash. Li offers an opposing view to the previous authors on the winners of the IRA, demonstrating that there were negative electoral effects in response to IRA Energy Community designations. Bradley focuses on the characteristics of local communities to theorize how human capital concentration affects economic performance and support for green industrial policies. Cha and Ryoo consider firm-level characteristics that may affect public support for green industrial policy using experiments – considering in particularly backlash against China from US voters. Finally, Oslan discusses the conditions under which green industrial policy programs might backfire using game theoretic models and case studies.
The third panel addresses the creation and implementation of green industrial policies, as well as their aftermath. Winkler discusses how firms engage in the creation of green industrial policy to influence green classification procedures. Next, Southin considers the unique implementation challenges of industrial policy in small liberal market economies that are reluctant to “pick winners” and coordinate innovation activities broadly. Echavarraia also discusses the challenges of implementation focusing on intermediary actors – rather than the government – in community solar projects. Wang and Yan consider how local protectionism manifest in public procurement can affect green industrial policy and EVs. Finally, Jud investigates the effects of phasing out subsidies using the case of German EV subsidies.
Moving to a global perspective, the fourth panel focuses on the experiences of developing countries with green industrial policy. O’Brien-Udry and Matush consider how climate change affects low- and middle-income countries’ industrial policies, and specifically whether they shift their policy to address issues caused by climate change. Zhu, Li, and Yu investigate how political incentives shaped China’s green industrial policy transition. De Gaspi and Allan compare Brazil and Mexico discussing the unique challenges that their governments faced in industrial policy. The panel also discusses firm and sector level considerations in green industrial policy in developing countries. Huang, Jensen, and Malesky investigate to what extent firms in developing countries engage in green activities, and which actors push them to do so. Ratan and Allan offer a new strategy with export data and a machine learning model to identify the most competitive sectors in which to pursue industrial policy.
The final panel explores how green industrial policy intersects with international conflict and cooperation. The paper by Brownstein investigates how the increasing trend of industrial policy programs in developed states impacts international cooperation in trade agreements and in the International Monetary Fund. Next, Toenshoff and Akbik consider citizens’ preferences for coordinating industrial policy internationally or maintaining a domestic piecemeal approach. Kenney considers how international cooperation on separate issues – such as tax evasion – can affect industrial policy and investment promotion in individual states. Finally, Brooks and Voeten consider how international geopolitical conflict affects industrial policy efforts.
Building Domestic Political Support for Industrial Policy Programs
Saturday, September 13, 8:00 – 9:30am
Full Paper Panel with Virtual Participation
Participants:
(Chair) Cleo O’Brien-Udry, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
(Discussant) Juan Dodyk, Harvard University
(Discussant) Stefano Jud, University of Bern
Session Description:
The mini conference begins with a panel on how countries can effectively build domestic political support for green industrial policy programs. The first three papers specifically consider how to build support among Republicans for green projects, given the extensive provision of resources to red districts. Morton, Dolsak, and Prakash consider whether the Inflation Reduction Act was effective at increasing support for Republican candidates given that most investment flowed to their districts but was not originally supported by Republicans in congress. Benkler also considers how the IRA affected Republicans, zooming in on the case of Texas. He finds that non-partisan attributes – such as district specific renewable energy factors – influence the extent to which Republicans embrace renewable energy projects. Wu uses pre-registered experiments to test how different messaging by co-partisans can change the viewpoints of Republicans on support for green industrial policy. Finally, Cao and Zhao consider firms’ preferences over green industrial policy programs by investigating carbon border adjustment and the Green New Deal. This panel provides a starting point to understand how effective green industrial policy can be created and who has been reaping rewards under the current policy climate.
Papers:
Did the Inflation Reduction Act Influence the 2024 U.S. Elections?
Kayla Morton, University of Washington; Nives Dolsak, University of Washington
The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) has been called the most significant climate legislation in U.S. history, committing nearly $400 billion to clean energy and climate adaptation initiatives. While not a single Republican voted for the IRA, much of the IRA monies have flowed to Republican states. Following the 2024 election, 18 Republicans issued a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson encouraging him to protect aspects of the IRA. We examine the impact of the IRA spending on the 2024 House of Representatives elections. Our objective is to assess if Republican candidates are rewarded by voters for IRA monies that flowed in their Congressional districts. This expands on previous literature on how pork-barrel politics influence electoral outcomes. We expect that IRA spending will increase support for Republican incumbents. Broadly, if the economy is the key driver of electoral outcomes, incumbents benefit from a thriving economy irrespective of whether this was financed by a non-partisan legislative action or partisan legislative action which they might have opposed in the House. We use a measure of IRA spending that includes all appropriations and also examine an alternative measurement of actual IRA dollars spent. Our findings have key implications for the persistence of the IRA in the upcoming legislative session.
Red State, Green State: Local Political Economy, State Legislators, and the Inflation Reduction Act
Ari Benkler, University of California, Berkeley
This paper examines non-partisan drivers of legislative behavior on climate issues at the state level, showing that legislators engage in responsiveness to district-specific economic opportunities presented by the renewable energy industry. Given its size and substantive importance for understanding the governance of the renewable energy market in Republican-dominated states, I examine the state of Texas, leveraging climate-specific legislator ideology scores from the Texas Sierra Club and geospatial data from USGS to show that district-specific renewable energy factors explain variation in legislators’ climate voting that partisanship alone cannot, and that this is particularly true for Republicans. I argue this is because the political benefits of local, easily attributable economic growth strong electoral incentives that may push Republican legislators to embrace the renewable energy industry. Further analysis leverages spatial heterogeneity in the volume of renewable energy subsidies available under the IRA to explore the impact of federal policy changes on the development of state politics. I argue that the impacts of large-scale federal spending whose spatial distribution is determined largely by firm-level investment decisions on incentives for state legislators is substantive significant and structures an important relationship between state and federal policy development that is analogous to Vogel’s “California Effect” in reverse.
Increasing Stated Climate Mitigation Behaviors without Increasing Partisan Belief in Climate Change
Victor Yuhang Wu, Stanford University
Slowly changing climate beliefs are often considered a prerequisite to climate action. However, partisan polarization has crystallized climate beliefs, and the narrowing window for climate mitigation demands urgent behavior change. Using preregistered survey experiments on solar panels (n = 9,298) and electric vehicles (n = 9,903), I find that different messages from co-partisan elected officials increase stated mitigation behaviors among both Republicans and Democrats, even without increasing belief in climate change. Thus, interventions seeking to gradually increase climate belief may instead seek to directly motivate mitigation behaviors. Furthermore, messages about climate change also make Republicans more likely to adopt mitigation behaviors, challenging the scholarly consensus that discussing climate change triggers a “backfire effect” reducing Republicans’ mitigation behaviors. Finally, I apply the theory of “credibility-enhancing displays” to US politics for the first time. I find limited evidence that partisan elites become more effective at motivating mitigation behaviors when they themselves engage in those behaviors.
Does Carbon Tariff Reshape Global Supply Chains? Examining the Effect of EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on European Firms’ Supply Chain Adjustments
Xun Cao, Penn State University; Lingbo Zhao, Pennsylvania State University
Carbon tariffs are a major component of green industry policy. It affects the competitiveness of industries by taxing imported goods based on embedded carbon emissions. By making emissions-heavy imports more expensive, it encourages firms to source input from cleaner production hubs. In 2019, the concept of carbon border adjustment was introduced as part of the European Green Deal. While not immediately enacted, the announcement sent signals that cost structures might soon shift, incentivizing firms to reconsider their choice of suppliers. Anecdotal cases show that some EU-based importers are shifting to alternative suppliers with lower carbon footprints. However, to date, no systematic study has been done to investigate the impacts of the CBAM on global supply chains. We aim to fill this gap by asking 1) How do carbon tariff proposals influence firms’ decisions to reallocate supplier networks? 2) Does the response vary by firm characteristics such as the complexity and rigidity of their supply chains? Empirically, we use supply chain records from Factset to measure EU-based customer firms’ global supplier composition. We use a difference-in-difference analysis: we consider firms in sectors targeted by the CBAM as treated and the 2019 introduction of CBAM an exogenous shock separating pre- vs. post-treatment periods.
Losers of Industrial Policy Programs and Public Backlash
Saturday, September 13, 10:00 – 11:30am
Full Paper Panel
Participants:
(Chair) Sarah M. Brooks, Ohio State University
(Discussant) Margaret Anne Kenney, University of California, Berkeley
Session Description:
While the previous panel discussed how to build effective coalitions and who is winning from current green industrial policy programs, this panel considers the losers of industrial policy and the potential for public backlash. Li offers an opposing view to the previous authors on the winners of the IRA, demonstrating that there were negative electoral effects in response to IRA Energy Community designations. Bradley focuses on the characteristics of local communities to theorize how human capital concentration affects economic performance and support for green industrial policies. Cha and Ryoo consider firm-level characteristics that may affect public support for green industrial policy using experiments – considering in particularly backlash against China from US voters. Finally, Oslan discusses the conditions under which green industrial policy programs might backfire using game theoretic models and case studies.
Papers:
Building Climate Coalitions with Fossil Fuel Communities? A Cautionary Tale from the Inflation Reduction Act’s Energy Community Designation
Zikai Li, University of Chicago
Communities reliant on fossil fuel industries often oppose climate mitigation measures due to concerns over economic decline and job losses associated with the transition to renewable energy. Social scientists and policymakers have debated whether targeted economic incentives can alleviate such opposition, but empirical evidence is limited. This study examines the causal impact of the Energy Community (EC) designation—introduced under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—on the Democratic share of the two-party vote in the 2024 presidential election. I use a novel two-dimensional regression discontinuity design, which leverages the quasi-random assignment of EC status to communities near the eligibility thresholds. The results show no positive electoral effect of EC status and are instead suggestive of a small negative effect (percentile bootstrap 95% confidence interval: [-0.943%, -0.007%]). Simulations indicate these bootstrap confidence intervals are conservative and have coverage rates close to 1. While somewhat surprising, the effect is small in magnitude and consistent with the salience of inflation in the 2024 election if local investments increased prices. I discuss how these findings can inform theoretical debates on the role of economic incentives in shaping political behavior and provide insights for future policy designs aimed at achieving a just and politically feasible green transition.
Who Wins and Who Loses? How Human Capital Concentration Shapes the Economic and Political Effects of the Green Transition
Max Bradley, European University Institute
What is the role of local communities in determining the winners and losers of the green transition? Some communities are more exposed to the effects of the transition compared with others due to the presence of firms vulnerable to decarbonization policies. While it is often assumed that all ‘transition-exposed’ communities bear economic costs, I contend that some also stand to benefit. I argue that the local concentration of human capital – the skills and knowledge within a community – is a key determinant of which communities emerge as the economic ‘winners’ or ‘losers’ of the transition. This economic divide shapes local attitudes: residents in ‘losing’ communities oppose the transition, while this effect dissipates in ‘winning’ communities. I test this argument in the UK, leveraging local-authority level administrative data, and individual-level panel data. Using difference-in-differences and event-study designs, I demonstrate that since the 2008 Climate Change Act was introduced, communities with lower (higher) levels of human capital have seen a decline (improvement) in the economic performance of transition-exposed sectors. I then show that residents in ‘losing’ areas display opposition to the transition, while this effect is mitigated in ‘winning’ areas. These findings highlight the need for carefully targeted transition assistance and investment policies.
When Environmental Protections Backfire at Home and Abroad
Afiq bin Oslan, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance
Developed nations often position themselves as leaders in green movements and legislate protections for their local environment. In some cases, this can have indirect negative consequences as environmentally harmful behaviours are simply displaced abroad. This paper argues, from a political-economic perspective, that the local environment in developed states may also become neglected because of the same policies as new regulations diminish the economic value of local environments. I demonstrate this phenomenon in a series of simple game-theoretical models where stakeholders of environmental resources respond to the policies of two trade partner governments. The models show that environmentally conscious governments might have their green policies backfire—resulting in environmental neglect if the preferences of those directly managing environmental resources are not in sync. Thus, in their attempt to hide trade behind green rhetoric, developed nations may be promoting environmental neglect at both ends of the trade route. Discussions of the wood industry in post-war Japan and the EU Forest Strategy for 2030 supplement the models.
Political Economy of Green Industrial Policy Implementation
Saturday, September 13, 12:00 – 1:30pm
Full Paper Panel
Participants:
(Chair) Afiq bin Oslan, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance
(Discussant) Ari Benkler, University of California, Berkeley
(Discussant) Sujin Cha, University of Michigan
Session Description:
This panel considers the creation of green industrial policy programs, challenges to implementation, and the aftermath of programs after they have been phased out. First, Winkler discusses how firms engage in the creation of green industrial policy to influence green classification procedures. Next, Southin considers the unique implementation challenges of industrial policy in small liberal market economies that are reluctant to “pick winners” and coordinate innovation activities broadly. Echavarraia also discusses the challenges of implementation focusing on intermediary actors – rather than the government – in community solar projects. Wang and Yan consider how local protectionism manifest in public procurement can affect green industrial policy and EVs. Finally, Jud investigates the effects of phasing out subsidies using the case of German EV subsidies. He finds that after subsidies are removed there is a precipitous drop in EV purchases, though this change is mitigated by Green Party vote share.
Papers:
Institutional Barriers to Green Industrial Policy in Liberal Market Economies
Travis Southin, Carleton University
This article provides evidence that green industrial policy presents a unique challenge to smaller liberal market economies such as Canada and Australia who lack the institutional capacity to coordinate the innovation activities of business, government, and regional actors. For decades, these countries have eschewed targeted industrial policy in favour of non-targeted, framework-level policies such as supply-side investments in academic research and sector-neutral innovation policy instruments such as R&D tax credits, under the laissez-faire premise that the state should not ‘pick winners.’ These framework instruments do not require as close coordination with business, across government departments, or with regions as more direct, targeted interventions such as R&D grants, loans, procurement and crafting supply-chain/sector strategies and R&D consortia. This research draws on over 100 interviews with civil servants, industry, and experts to show how Canadian and Australian policymakers’ recent efforts to expand green industrial policy were hindered by atrophied industrial policy capacity. The article’s emphasis on the enduring path dependent constraints of national policy styles provides a rejoinder to recent literature on green industrial policy that emphasizes policy agency. As such, it offers a middle ground, identifying strategies employed by policymakers to foster coordination in policy environments with underdeveloped industrial policy institutions.
Delaying the Transition: Utility Bottlenecks and Their Impact on Community Solar Deployment
Elizabeth Echavarria, University of Washington
Community solar projects are distributed energy resources (DERs) shared among multiple subscribers, who receive electricity credits for their share of produced power. They provide homeowners and renters with equitable access to solar energy’s benefits, regardless of property attributes or ownership. Despite their importance in enabling a just transition, interested parties often denounce how technical and policy-related hurdles hinder their expansion, delaying achieving state and national-level decarbonization goals. Utilities responsible for application processing rarely provide accessible interconnection-level data for systematic analysis. This prevents relevant actors from accurately identifying the causes of the backlogs or measuring their impact, impeding informed solar energy decision-making. This study addresses this gap by analyzing public data on 260,000 community solar project applications submitted to New York utilities from 2014 to 2024. Employing survival analysis, it examines the speed at which utilities approve project applications. Key predictors of slower approval rates include the number of projects queued at application time, estimated interconnection costs tied to grid expansion needs, and new renewable energy programs introduced shortly before submission. The findings of this study imply that, despite rising demand for accessible renewable energy, intermediary actors may hinder adoption rates in the presence of inadequate infrastructure and limited capacity.
Green Industrial Policy and EV Development in China
Karl Yan, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; Hanjie Wang, Boston University
China’s electric vehicle (EV) sector has grown rapidly under a comprehensive green industrial policy framework. While much attention has focused on subsidies, pilot programs, and R&D support, public procurement policies remain understudied. Since the early 2010s, the central government has mandated that at least 30% of new public fleet vehicles be new energy vehicles. This demand-side policy has significantly influenced both EV market adoption and supply-side dynamics, including indigenous innovation. Yet, questions remain about the criteria guiding procurement decisions. Do governments prefer domestic over foreign brands, and do local authorities favor models produced or assembled within their jurisdictions? This research compiles provincial-level procurement data (2013–2024) and matches EV models with technical specifications, supply chain information, and manufacturing locations. Preliminary findings indicate that, controlling price, local governments are more likely to procure locally produced models, suggesting a form of local protectionism. Such preferences support domestic industry, encourage technological upgrades, and foster indigenous innovation. At the same time, these strategies can create market fragmentation and potentially limit foreign entry. Ultimately, the study sheds light on how green industrial policies—beyond subsidies and R&D—shape industrial transformation. It offers insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to balance sustainable innovation with open, competitive markets.
Phasing Out Green Subsidies: Evidence from the Sudden Stop of Federal EV Subsidies in Germany
Stefano Jud, University of Bern
Governments worldwide provide financial incentives to encourage consumers to adopt more sustainable technologies, such as electric vehicles (EVs). However, at some point, these subsidies should be phased out. The key question is: how can this be done without significantly dampening demand for these technologies? I examine the case of Germany, where, without prior notice, the federal government announced on December 16, 2023, that the Umweltbonus—a federal EV subsidy—would no longer apply to vehicles purchased starting December 17, 2023. To assess the impact of this abrupt subsidy withdrawal on EV sales, I constructed a panel dataset with monthly EV sales across all German Landkreise (counties). Using a regression discontinuity design, the results indicate that the removal of the Umweltbonus led to an immediate decline in EV sales of 65.5 cars per Landkreis, amounting to approximately 26,200 EVs nationwide. This represents a 36% drop in monthly EV sales compared to the pre-removal period. Exploratory analysis reveals that the decline in EV sales was notably smaller in counties with a high Green Party vote share, highlighting the role of environmental preferences in sustaining demand during the transition. Additional analysis is underway to explore the role of local county-level institutions in mitigating the negative effects of subsidy withdrawal.
Green Industrial Policy in Developing Countries
Saturday, September 13, 2:00 – 3:30pm
Full Paper Panel
Participants:
(Chair) Xun Cao, Penn State University
(Discussant) Zikai Li, University of Chicago
(Discussant) Ishana Ratan, University of California, Berkeley
Session Description:
Much of the literature on industrial policy considers political support, implementation, and effectiveness in developed countries. This panel considers the unique position of developing countries in green industrial policy and how their experiences with these policy instruments differ. First, the panel considers how governments in developing countries make decisions about green industrial policy and climate change. O’Brien-Udry and Matush consider how climate change affects low- and middle-income countries’ industrial policies, and specifically whether they shift their policy to address issues caused by climate change. Similarly considering government behavior on green industrial policy, Zhu, Li, and Yu investigate how political incentives shaped China’s green industrial policy transition. Finally, de Gaspi and Allan compare Brazil and Mexico discussing the unique challenges that their governments faced in industrial policy. Next, the panel shifts to firm and sector level considerations in green industrial policy in developing countries. Huang, Jensen, and Malesky investigate to what extent firms in low- and middle-income countries engage in green activities, and which actors push them to do so. They find that government buyers increase the likelihood of engagement in green activities, but do not find evidence that Western buyers have an effect. Ratan and Allan offer a new strategy with export data and a machine learning model to identify the most competitive sectors in which to pursue industrial policy.
Papers:
Small Fish, Big Subsidy: Industrial Policy in the Global South under Climate Change
Cleo O’Brien-Udry, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; Kelly Matush, Florida State University
How do developing countries pursue industrial policy under climate change? Climate change affects the profitability of agriculture and aquaculture across the globe. As the viability of different industries changes due to global warming, how do states alter their domestic subsidy regimes in response? We trace the changing patterns of fisheries as ocean temperatures affect the success of farming different species in coastal nations. We expect the fungibility of farming fish species to affect states’ ability to subsidize domestic fishing industries. States that previously were not viable candidates for farming profitable fish species invest less than expected in fostering the new industries as further warming could render their investments moot–developing countries are the least likely to invest in new fishing opportunities.
Political Incentives in China’s Clean Energy Leap
Hongshen Zhu, Lingnan University; Zeren Li, National University of Singapore; Chitao Yu, National University of Singapore
This paper draws on an extensive, newly compiled multi-level dataset to examine the political economy behind China’s unprecedented surge in renewable energy development. We leverage detailed records on over 8,000 solar and wind projects connected to China’s National Grid, comprehensive data on coal plants, and 3.9 million government procurement contracts and PPP agreements. Crucially, we also integrate biographical information on ministerial-level officials, enabling us to trace the links between elite political incentives and large-scale project approvals. By geo-coding renewable installations and examining variations in project scale, timing, and ownership structure, we assess how career trajectories, institutional affiliations, and broader political mandates shape local renewable outcomes. Our theoretical framework posits that local officials strategically leverage their connections with central ministries to secure renewable energy projects aligned with national priorities. Since these clean energy projects, largely constructed by central state-owned enterprises, deliver lucrative inflows of capital, jobs, and infrastructural upgrading, local leaders have strong incentives to court the approval and involvement of influential central agencies. We hypothesize that localities with closer ministerial ties and well-placed officials are better positioned to capture these windfall opportunities, thereby accelerating their own energy transition and development. By probing these relational dynamics, our study sheds light on how central-local networks and institutional linkages enable the proliferation of green industrial policies, ultimately revealing the micro-foundations of China’s renewable energy boom.
The Intensive Margin of Green Development: Government Policy and the Greening of Vietnamese Firms
Yunyi Huang, University of Texas, Austin; Nathan M. Jensen, University of Texas at Austin; Edmund J. Malesky, Duke University
Green industrial policy is gaining momentum globally. Academic research has focused on government investments in energy transition, yet less clear is how government policy can influence millions of existing firms to adapt their business models to minimize negative environmental impact globally. This paper examines how individual firms in a major developing country adapt their practices, from small steps like reducing paperwork and monitoring energy use to major shifts such as installing renewable energy or producing green products. Using data from the Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI), which provides detailed information on the green decisions of foreign and domestic firms in Vietnam, we find significant investments in green activities with notable variation. We find limited evidence that sales to Western firms with environmentally conscious consumers drive green behavior. Instead, it is another buyer, national and subnational governments, that push firms to adopt greener practices. Not only are firms active in government procurement greener, but also their green activities are significantly motivated by the perception that Provincial governments prioritize green activities when selecting firms for procurement contracts and the government is willing to pay a premium for goods and services from green firms. Additionally, substantial provincial guidance on improving environmental performance is also a major driver of firm greening activities. Our descriptive analysis provides powerful preliminary evidence that governments can shape green activities. To test causality, we follow an identification strategy proposed by Khan et al. (2024), which argues that inflows of foreign direct investment into Vietnam triggered by Trump-era tariffs on China pressure provincial governments to improve access to green technologies and renewable energy. Using distance from China as an instrument for environmental pressure, we show that more exposed provinces applied stricter green procurement standards, which has a downstream effect on firm-level environmental upgrading.
Focusing Green Industrial Policy: Sectoral Competitiveness for Energy Transition
Ishana Ratan, University of California, Berkeley; Bentley B. Allan, Johns Hopkins University
Green industrial policy must be focused to be effective. Countries need to make difficult decisions about where they can compete both before they begin, and as they monitor and evaluate policy success. What sectors and subsectors are countries likely to be competitive in? Existing approaches seek to use export data to predict production capacity or create simple multifactor indices. We build on these approaches with a machine learning model that seeks to evaluate future competitiveness across 12 green industries. Our model brings together exports, foreign direct investment inflows, natural resources, and existing assets and infrastructure together in a probabilistic model. We train the model on historical data in established industries including solar panels and electric vehicles components, to forecast countries’ competitiveness in cutting-edge green technologies. This allows us to evaluate the model’s predictions against real data and increases our confidence in the accuracy of our forecasts in emerging technologies. Our approach combines existing strengths with future potential, to balance existing capabilities with future possibilities, to keep the space for creative action open. This tool can support countries seeking to identify their best sectoral and subsectoral opportunities in the energy transition.
International Cooperation, Conflict, and Green Industrial Policy Programs
Saturday, September 13, 4:00 – 5:30pm
Full Paper Panel
Participants:
(Chair) Aseem Prakash, University of Washington
(Discussant) Max Bradley, European University Institute
(Discussant) Christina Luise Toenshoff, Leiden University
Session Description:
This mini-conference concludes with a panel that considers how industrial policy programs interact with the international environment – namely, international conflict and cooperation. Dodyk and Brownstein investigate how the increasing trend of industrial policy programs in developed states impact international cooperation in trade agreements and in the International Monetary Fund. Next, Toenshoff and Akbik consider citizens’ preferences for coordinating industrial policy internationally or maintaining a domestic piecemeal approach. Kenney considers how international cooperation on separate issues – such as tax evasion – can affect industrial policy and investment promotion in individual states. Finally, Brooks and Voeten consider how international geopolitical conflict affects industrial policy efforts.
Papers:
The Policy That Shall Be Named: The IMF and the Return of Industrial Policy
Greg Brownstein, George Washington University
How do international organizations change in response to external shocks? The literature on international organizations (IOs) has established that external shocks can produce lasting change at IOs by inducing shifts in the interests of powerful member states or the ideas that undergird an IO’s core functions. But how do international organizations change during times of uncertainty when interests and ideas have not clearly changed? I argue that international organizations may exhibit profound shifts in rhetoric or policy in response to external shocks absent consensus among technical staff or pressure from powerful member states. These hard-to-explain changes occur because IOs seek to safeguard their legitimacy in the wake of political or policy shocks. I explore this argument by examining shifts in the International Monetary Fund’s rhetoric and policy regarding industrial policy.
Together or Alone? EU Citizens’ Preferences for Green Industrial Policy
Christina Luise Toenshoff, Leiden University; Adina Akbik, Leiden University
After decades of climate policies that focused on imposing a price on carbon, the European Union is increasingly adding green industrial policy to its toolkit. However, the EU has to first grapple with a potentially difficult trade-off: Should it let national governments implement green industrial policy, or should green industrial policy be conducted at the EU level? The latter would be more efficient but entails potentially unpopular redistribution between EU member states. In this paper, we field a survey in four EU countries – Germany, Sweden, Italy, and Romania – to examine Europeans’ preferences regarding this policy trade-off. We find that green industrial policy is highly popular and that individuals in all countries prefer EU-level to national-level policies, on average. However, we also find significant heterogeneity, where respondents in poorer countries are, unsurprisingly, more in favor of EU-level policies. Further, we find that, as for any redistribution policy, support for EU-level green industrial policy is shaped by respondents’ perceptions of the competence and deservingness of other member states. Respondents from net contributing countries who believe that people in other countries are, for example, efficient, trustworthy, and hard-working find EU-level redistribution and joint management of green industrial policy less objectionable.
From Barrels to Bottlenecks: How International Tax Regulations Affect Industrial Policy
Margaret Anne Kenney, University of California, Berkeley
Globally, tax evasion practices cost countries $100-240 billion per year. Tax revenues have also been limited by the increasing use of tax incentives to attract investment. However, recent coordination on international tax regulations will have significant impacts on the future of these strategies. Given the wide latitude of domestic governments over tax policy in the past, the sudden success of international tax coordination has been surprising. Therefore, in this project, I ask: how do changes to global tax rules affect the international investment environment and the future of industrial policy? I outline a typology of the political economy of FDI attraction instruments. By exploring the preferences of firms, politicians, and voters, I offer predictions on how changes to the international tax environment affect the use of these instruments. I argue that the global minimum tax will dampen the use of investment incentives and shift the politicization of FDI from local politicians to bureaucracy. I use survey experiments, difference-in-differences, and observational data to test these claims. This project contributes to the understanding of industrial policy, inequality, and international law.
Green Industrial Policy and the Geopolitics of Investment in Critical Minerals
Sarah M. Brooks, Ohio State University; Erik Voeten, Georgetown University
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) sought to increase US investments and production of green technologies, and de-risk that supply chain from China. The IRA gives tax credits to products made with critical minerals and battery components produced in countries with whom the United States has a free trade agreement (FTA) or critical mineral agreement. Such “friendshoring” would shift trade and investment within geopolitical blocs rather than between blocs. We ask whether there is evidence that the IRA has such effects? We then ask how this affects countries that are rich in critical minerals. Do they have to choose between the U.S. and China? Or does the geopolitical competition strengthen their bargaining positions? Mineral rich countries increasingly adopt industrial policies to move up the value chain, as Indonesia did in its ban on raw nickel export, which lead to massive inward FDI in nickel refining. We have created a large database of investments in the battery supply chain. Our initial results (using a diff-in-diff) show that since the IRA has taken effect, investments in countries that have an FTA with the U.S. have indeed increased significantly. We theorize where and when this industrial move up the value chain is likely.