The Emerging Scholars Symposium Lightning Round sessions will be held on Saturday, September 13, in the Vancouver Convention Centre (VCC), East 13 & 14. These PechaKucha-style sessions will begin in the morning and conclude with the Graduate Student Happy Hour on Saturday evening. Coffee will be provided during each session.
Each participant will have five minutes to present their research, followed by five minutes of feedback or Q&A. This fast-paced format offers scholars the opportunity to present at the world’s largest political science conference while developing their research communication skills through a structured, concise presentation.
Graduate Student Research Lightning Round: IR & Comparative
Vancouver Convention Centre (VCC), East 13
Saturday, September 13, 8:00 – 9:30am
Lightning Round with Virtual Participation
Participants:
(Chair) Tobias Hofmann, Free University of Berlin
(Discussant) Amanda A. Licht, SUNY, Binghamton University
Papers:
China’s Health Diplomacy and Soft Power Play in Chile and Argentina
Hoi Kee Tsang, University of British Columbia Okanagan
China’s growing influence in Latin America has drawn increasing attention in academia. It is often compared to the region’s historical ties with North American and European countries. Past studies have focused on Sino-Latin America’s cooperation in trade and investment. But during the pandemic, China stepped in and became an alternative for the region in medical assistance. This project has taken a comparative case study approach that contrasts a pair of similarly situated countries that have been on the receiving end of the same Chinese pandemic outreach but with different results: while Chile perceives China relatively positively, Argentina has experienced anti-China protests, and its healthcare practitioners and policymakers have expressed doubts about the effectiveness of Chinese anti-COVID vaccines. The study also aims to demonstrate an effective evaluation of soft power. Despite being frequently studied, what soft power stands for has sparked debates since the concept was coined by American political scientist Joseph Nye three decades ago. A consensus has begun to form about the concept’s resources, actors, and relationship to democracy. But it remains notoriously difficult to measure and even harder to identify the causes of its “success”. In academia, surveys are the most widely used tool for operationalizing soft power to examine general perceptions. However, this research is interested in policy outcomes, so semi-structured interviews with decision-makers are a more effective tool. A field trip was conducted in Chile and Argentina for semi-structured interviews with half a dozen healthcare practitioners in each country. Participants include two former Minister of Health and front-line workers. Unlike previous soft power studies which emphasize generators’ capability to produce soft power, this study’s main finding is that the domestic politics of soft power receivers play a significant role. It seems that for practitioners and the general public in the recipient country, if they believe the self-interest of their own politicians reached a level that endangers public interest, they will be warier about future cooperation with a great foreign power, regardless of the soft power that the great foreign power has generated. Findings from the study should shed new light on future global health policy.
Drivers of Compliance and Non-Compliance in Patron-Client Relations
Toms Ratfelders, University of Delaware
Why do subordinate states in aligned relationships choose to comply or not comply with their superiors’ demands? To answer this question, the proposed research project attempts to use the framework of patron-client relations and identifies five potential hypotheses and supporting mechanisms that could drive compliance and non-compliance outcomes. To test these elements, I seek to conduct a process tracing in the context of three qualitative case studies on Russia’s relationship with Syria, Armenia, and Belarus. I put particular emphasis on one episode of compliance and one episode of non-compliance for each case. The overall aim of the research project is to come up with a coherent theory that could explain the compliance and non-compliance outcomes in patron-client relations.
For Our Eyes Only: Intelligence, Transparency, and Arming
Garrett Hinck, Columbia University
Despite a general consensus in international relations that improvements to transparency between rivals can reduce the risk of conflict and have other salutary effects, intelligence collection, the main method by which states attempt to learn about their adversaries, remains understudied. One particularly important area besides conflict where intelligence collection can reduce information asymmetries is arming, as Coe and Vaynman (2020) show in the context of arms control. They argue that, like war, arming is puzzling because it is inefficient, entailing costs that states pay even though bargains could be reached with the expense. By improving states’ ability to monitor arms control agreements, intelligence can reduce inefficient arming. I extend Coe and Vaynman’s argument and contend that intelligence collection can reduce inefficient arming even in the absence of agreements by improving states’ estimates of their adversaries’ capabilities and their confidence in their ability to estimate those capabilities. In contrast to scholarship on intelligence that has emphasized how biases make intelligence failures inevitable, I argue that improved forms of intelligence collection can lead to more accurate estimates, especially when technologies enable comprehensive monitoring of capabilities.
To test my theory, I build an original database of U.S. and British intelligence estimates on Soviet nuclear and missile capabilities from 1954 to 1970 and construct a measure of the accuracy of these assessments. Then, I use the geographic coverage of the Soviet Union by overhead intelligence gathering platforms, specifically the U-2 spyplane from 1956 to 1960 and satellite reconnaissance from 1960 to 1970, to estimate the coverage of Soviet territory by U.S. photographic intelligence. I show that increases in photographic coverage led to better intelligence estimates. Then, I show using qualitative historical evidence how improved intelligence estimates of the “bomber gap” and “missile gap” led to reductions in planned U.S. strategic nuclear capabilities. I also show that improved intelligence collection allowed for more accurate forecasting of China’s first nuclear detonation in 1964.
These findings have important implications for theories of information and conflict and the role of intelligence in international relations. First, I show that even unilateral intelligence collection can reduce inefficient arming, which contrasts to scholarship suggesting that transparency must be mutual to have beneficial effects. Second, I suggest one important criterion for intelligence to have positive effects – the extent to which it can comprehensively cover a domain of interest. Third, I demonstrate that improvements to intelligence collection technologies can improve the accuracy of estimates, in contrast to skeptics who emphasize the role of biases in intelligence analysis.
Navigating the US-China Rivalry: Strategies for Emerging Middle Powers
Athar Al-Hindawi, McMaster University
The rise of multipolarity, marked by the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China, has left states navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical environment. Traditional frameworks like the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) or hedging strategies fall short in addressing the intertwined realities of security alliances, economic interdependence, and technological competition. This dynamic is especially critical for middle powers seeking autonomy to shape their developmental trajectories and political futures. How can middle powers leverage a strategy of “non-confinement” to resist alignment pressures, enhance their autonomy, and contribute to a more cooperative global order? This paper introduces “non-confinement,” a novel concept rooted in Middle Power Theory, to explain how middle powers maximize agency through selective engagement with both great powers while avoiding rigid alignments. Using Saudi Arabia as a primary case study, the paper examines its dual strategy of leveraging U.S. security guarantees and Chinese economic partnerships. Complementary case studies of Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam are used to analyze the conditions under which middle powers maintain strategic flexibility. Drawing on constructivism, the paper also explores how these states construct identities as pragmatic actors and how these identities influence global power dynamics. This paper addresses the roots of division and disorder by highlighting how multipolarity reshapes middle power agency and challenges traditional hierarchies of power. It demonstrates how strategies of non-confinement can counter polarization and foster cooperation in an era of crisis. By expanding Middle Power Theory to include emerging Asian powers, this research provides insights into how middle powers, through adaptive strategies, can reimagine global governance and drive domestic development.
Positionality, Networking, and Diplomatic Power of the Japan Coast Guard
Wenxin Li, University of Delaware
A “coordinated whole-of-government” approach has been emphasized by recent Japanese administrations in pursuing their flagship diplomatic agenda of achieving a Free and Open Indo-Pacific. Consequently, several governmental agencies whose conventional obligations had been primarily domestic-oriented started to carry out some diplomatic tasks. A representative example is the Japan Coast Guard (JCG). Traditionally a law enforcement agency on protecting the coastline of Japan, the JCG has become a proactive actor working with other regional counterparts to materialize a free and open maritime order. More importantly, despite being a non-traditional diplomatic actor with limited budget and personnel, the JCG and the capacity building programs that it has been intensively engaged in are widely welcomed by the regional stakeholders.
What has enabled the JCG to transcend those professional and materialistic constraints to contribute to Japan’s overarching diplomatic agenda?
I argue that the answers lie in the JCG’s distinctive positionality and its institutionalized networks with both regional and domestic actors.
First, different from the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF), the JCG is a strictly civilian agent ensuring safety and security of the sea lanes that are essential to Japanese economy. This positionality gives the JCG agency to start cooperation with Southeast Asian littoral states without causing their concerns over foreign military presence. JCG also holds more convenient positionality than the JSDF to address issues in the grey-zone and on non-traditional security. Starting with cooperation on maritime safety as early as 1970s, JCG’s interactions with their regional counterparts have laid the ground for trust building that is indispensable for security cooperation.
Moreover, since the 2000s, the JCG has been making and managing multi-layered relationships that facilitate profound cooperation. It has initiated and regularized multiple multilateral coast guard summits, senior official meetings, and bilateral meetings with even un-likeminded countries. It has also proactively created counterparts by helping Southeast Asia countries establishing their own civilian law enforcement agencies and cultivated their officers through long-term trainings and creative academic programs. It is those institutionalized networking that empowers the JCG to forge common understanding on rule-based order, which would be hard to achieve if only by short-term visits and technical assistance. Domestically, collaboration with the Japanese foreign aid agency, grant-making foundations, and research institutes supports JCG’s outreach regardless of its limited resources. Through the processes of institutionalizing relationships with domestic and foreign partners, JCG has also been transformed toward an agency that devotes more attention and personnel into international affairs.
This article unpacks the causal mechanisms between the JCG’s positionality, its network building, and its diplomatic power. It draws data from primary resources including the JCG annual reports, essays written by JCG former Commandants, and elite interviews. Analysis of the JCG’s diplomatic power highlights the importance of re-imaging power as socially constructed rather than materialistically determined.
Control to Endure: State Ownership of Economy and Sanctions Duration
Kyungrim Chung, Yonsei University; Hyunsoo Ha, Yonsei University
Why do some economic sanctions persist longer than others? While many studies address sanctions effectiveness, few examine their duration, especially in terms of the target states’ domestic economic agents. However, economic agents must be considered as they can either defend or make the target states more vulnerable to foreign coercion, ultimately shaping the duration of sanctions. We posit that countries with higher levels of state ownership in the economy are more likely to withstand sanctions for a longer duration. Drawing on selectorate theory, leaders’ distributive capacity largely determines how effectively the regime can manage domestic discontent arising from sanctions and stay defiant to the coercive measures. In this regard, state-controlled assets serve as a crucial source of non-tax revenue, enabling leaders to supply goods and resources for maintaining support from their winning coalition. We validate our theoretical argument by examining the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) and the Threat and Imposition of Economic Sanctions (TIES) dataset for 146 target states from 1945 to 2005. The empirical findings indicate that the duration of sanctions increases with higher levels of state ownership. This research contributes by illuminating the role of economic agents in determining the effectiveness of economic sanctions, focusing on the dynamics of regime survival.
Refugee Return from Neighboring Host Countries in the Developing World
Md. Matiul Hoque Masud, American University
In 1979, when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, thousands of Afghan refugees took shelter in Pakistan. They were prevented from returning until the Soviet-backed regime in Kabul collapsed in 1992. Following the tripartite agreement between Pakistan, Afghanistan and UNHCR in 1993 Pashtun refugees were assisted to return, while non-Pashtuns were forced to return. Assistance for return increased after 2001 and continued until 2014. Between 2014 and 2021, both Pashtun and non-Pashtun Afghans were assisted but forced to return. Recently, Pakistan has deported millions of Afghan refugees. Variation in the return of refugees to the same unstable country from the same host state is intriguing. This empirical puzzle gives rise to a broader question: What explains variation in the return of refugees from neighboring states in the developing world?
There are empirical, theoretical, and policy reasons to investigate this question. Empirically, cross-regional comparative studies on cases of refugee return from neighboring host states in the developing world are limited even though 75 % of world refugees take shelter in their neighboring low- and middle-income states. Theoretically, the refugee return policy is under-theorized. The existing models fall short of explaining the factors that produce variation in large-scale refugee returns in the developing world. Western host-state-centric theories of forced migration, which do not consider extra-regional material and normative pressure, also will not be applicable since my project takes foreign policy goals (change constraints or accept constraints) of the host state and the West in the origin state and the perception (positive or negative) of the ruling regime towards the return of refugees to explain variation (prevent return, forced return, assisted forced return, or spontaneous return) in refugee return in the developing world. In addition, this project will help policymakers. The theoretical model developed by this project will be useful to explain and predict in what conditions and how refugees’ safe and voluntary return could be ensured, maintaining both state sovereignty and refugee rights.
Since existing theoretical frameworks are not fully suitable for explaining the variation in refugee return from neighboring states in the developing world, I will adopt analytic eclecticism and see how grand and middle-range theories of different disciplines can be put together coherently to bring a useful explanation. I contend that foreign policy goals of the host state and the West in the origin state and the perception of the ruling regime towards the return of refugees influence how and why refugees return, theories of International Relations and Comparative Politics will be useful.
I contend that domestic factors of origin and host states are necessary but not sufficient in explaining variation in return. We need to combine both domestic and international factors for a more nuanced explanation of variation in return across time, space, and refugee groups. I further contend that variation in return is determined by whether the host state and the West intend to alter the hypothesized cause of refugee exodus or accept the status quo in the origin state, and whether the ruling regime perceives the return of refugees positively or negatively.
My tentative configurations are as follows: First, preventive non-return is likely if the host state and the West intend to change the cause (e.g., foreign invasion, ethnic conflict, public disorder, governance system, or persecution) that is hypothesized to be the reason of refugee exodus and the ruling regime of the origin state perceives that the return of refugee groups will increase its internal and external legitimacy. Second, forced return is likely when the host state and the West intend to remove the cause, but the regime perceives that refugee return will not give it any advantage. Third, assisted return is likely if the host and the West maintain the status quo of the origin regime and the regime perceives that the return of refugees will give it advantages. Fourth, protracted non-return is likely when the host state and the West maintain the status quo but the ruling regime in the origin state perceives that refugee return will not give it any advantage.
I propose a mixed-methods approach to test the theory. I will build an original dataset and a large-N model of causal variables. I will conduct structured and focused comparisons using process tracing to examine the causal mechanism. Using a case selection frame, I have selected the return of Afghans from Pakistan and Iran and Burundians from Tanzania.
Expanding the Colonial Democratic Imagination with Resurgent Métis Governance: Leveraging Constitution-Building through Self-Government Agreements to Restore Political Trust for the Métis Nation
Susan Shacter, University of Saskatchewan
After years of political struggle, the Métis Nation has finally secured a seat at the table with the federal government. This accomplishment paves the way for restoring the nation-to-nation, government-to-government relationship with the Crown and the commencement of negotiations on Métis Rights. This historic opportunity emerged following the signing of recent agreements between Canada and the Métis Nation Government, which build upon significant contributions, including political accomplishments and legal victories of numerous Métis leaders. However, trust issues are proving to be a substantial obstacle to moving conversations forward. This thesis applies a provisional approach to democracy exploring the historical roots of trust within traditional Métis governance systems, considering the origin of political distrust between Canada and the Métis and how colonial-induced distrust was internalized within the Métis Nation. Additionally, I explore how the Métis Nation can leverage recent self-government Agreements to restore relations with the Crown while addressing internal democratic deficits to build trust within the Métis Nation through constitution-building.
As a Métis scholar, I prioritize decolonizing Métis politics through my research as an act of resistance, arguing that settler-colonial practices that undermined trust between Canada and the Métis were then imposed upon the Métis Nation. My research contends that the Agreements support a path to renewed relations between Métis governments and the Crown, as they are mutually agreeable, consistent with principles of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP) and introduce expectations for Canada to recognize and advance the ongoing exercise of Métis Rights, including the inherent right to self-determination through self-government. However, we must also address internal distrust to find true success as a self-governing Nation. Historical and ongoing processes of settler colonialism have not only undermined trust in the Canadian state but have also impacted relations within the Métis Nation, which threatens to stall the transition toward self-government.
In a podcast series hosted by Nivek Thompson (2017), critical theorist Mark Warren focuses on distrust within democratic systems, claiming that trust deficits and democratic deficits are “two sides of the same coin” (23:35). Warren (2017) explains, if you want more trust, you need more democracy. Considering the link between trust deficits and democratic deficits, my research argues that the Agreements also provide opportunities to restore internal trust for the Métis by supporting democratic innovations through constitution-building. However, how this is done matters. At the 2020 Otipemisiwak Conference, Métis lawyer Jason Madden highlighted the importance of listening to our Elders as we build our constitutions while recognizing the colonial biases that have crept into our governments. According to Madden (2020), applying Métis customary law to the Agreements will be “the most important part of the discussion in developing the Constitution, and probably the hardest” (1:57:30).
By recentering the political philosophy of Métis self-determination through the principles of kaa-tipeyimishoyaahk (independence) and wahkohtowin (interrelatedness), as reflected by Métis scholar Adam Gaudry (2014), my research prioritizes a process that aligns with Métis customary law by applying traditional governance practices to support democratic integrity as we transition to self-government. To understand the political, economic, and social impacts of distrust within the Métis Nation, I drew from the writings of leading Métis theorists. I analyzed historical events through the lens of political economy to confront settler-colonial practices of the Crown that undermined trust with the Métis, which was then internalized within the Métis Nation. I applied a qualitative approach focused on primary and secondary archival resources, along with my perspectives and recollections as a member of the Métis Nation. My action-oriented process combined theory with empirical findings, being mindful to guard against an incomplete analysis that merely balances normative power relations, which could, in turn, reinforce colonial biases.
Although my provisional approach to democracy for the Métis Nation builds upon Warren’s (2017) problem-based system, my thesis contends that merely applying more democracy to the trust deficit for MN-S would result in reproducing ongoing trust deficits. This circular logic would have us chasing our tails as we attempt to build trust in a reactive rather than proactive manner. Given the emergence of democracy, as explained by Warren (1999), as a response to distrust of political authorities, common sense suggests that implementing democratic mechanisms to oversee leadership would support trust building. However, as Warren (1999) explains, “More democracy has meant more oversight of and less trust in authorities” (1). To restore balance and support a return to democratic integrity for the Métis Nation, norms of reciprocity must be prioritized as we remember the importance of distributing power in a manner that applies historic Métis provisional governance practices. As we seek to restore the political philosophy of Métis self-determination, the principles of kaa-tipeyimishoyaahk (independence) and wahkohtowin (interrelatedness) are key to supporting decolonizing efforts for contemporary Métis governance.
Paths of Labor Migration: Intermediaries and Political Economy in Nepal, Pakistan
Oshin Pandey, AidData
This study examines the intricate dynamics of transnational labor migration from Nepal and Pakistan to Gulf countries, focusing on the role of intermediaries in shaping political narratives and migrant experiences. By comparing these two South Asian contexts, the research seeks to unpack similarities and differences in migration processes, regulatory frameworks, and the lived realities of migrant workers, providing a nuanced understanding of labor migration in the South Asia-Gulf corridor.
Using a mixed-methods approach, the study combines semi-structured interviews, fieldwork observations, and document analysis conducted in urban and rural areas of Nepal (Kathmandu and Dhanusha district) and Pakistan (Peshawar and Rawalpindi-Islamabad). This design enables a comprehensive examination of the migration industry in both countries, identifying patterns and unique features while linking these findings to broader socio-economic and political contexts.
The labor migration systems in both countries involve a wide network of actors, including state institutions, private recruitment agencies, and individual agents. While government bodies like Nepal’s Department of Foreign Employment (DoFE) and Pakistan’s Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment regulate recruitment frameworks, private recruiters and intermediaries dominate the practical aspects of migration, leading to significant discrepancies between policy intentions and migrants lived experiences.
Key findings reveal that migrants from Nepal and Pakistan navigate three primary pathways to seek employment abroad: direct engagement with agents, reliance on village-level sub-agents, or leveraging personal connections. Each pathway presents distinct challenges, including financial exploitation, deceptive recruitment practices, and inadequate pre-departure preparation. Migrants from rural areas are particularly vulnerable, as they often lack access to accurate information and rely heavily on informal networks.
During the pre-departure stage, migrants from both countries face similar challenges, such as:
- Exorbitant Recruitment Fees: Despite regulatory caps, migrants often pay fees ranging from 500 to 2200 USD, leading to substantial debt burdens.
- Information Asymmetry: Recruiters frequently mislead migrants about job contracts, working conditions, and salaries, exacerbating vulnerabilities.
- Inadequate Orientation Programs: Although orientation centers exist in both countries, many migrants bypass these resources due to accessibility issues or perceptions of ineffectiveness.
Migrants’ experiences abroad reveal additional commonalities, such as delayed or withheld wages, limited grievance mechanisms, and language barriers that hinder their ability to assert their rights. However, social networks of compatriots often provide critical support. The research also identifies differences in the degree of state support available in destination countries, with Nepali and Pakistani embassies often criticized for their limited involvement in migrant protection.
One of the study’s significant contributions lies in its analysis of the entrenched political economy of migration in both Nepal and Pakistan. Recruitment agencies and political authorities share deeply interlinked relationships that undermine effective regulation and enforcement of migrant protection policies. These dynamics perpetuate exploitation and hinder reforms that could alleviate the challenges faced by vulnerable workers.
By employing a comparative framework, this research highlights shared challenges and country-specific nuances in labor migration. Common issues include the need for stronger state negotiating power in bilateral agreements with destination countries, enhanced transparency and accountability in the recruitment process, and greater support mechanisms for workers abroad. Simultaneously, the study identifies unique features of each country’s migration system, such as differences in intermediary networks and the socio-political environments influencing migration outcomes.
This research offers valuable insights into the broader dynamics of South Asian labor migration to the Gulf by examining the entire migration cycle—from pre-departure to return. It provides actionable recommendations for addressing systemic challenges, including policies to enhance transparency, reduce financial exploitation, and strengthen institutional frameworks. By situating the experiences of Nepali and Pakistani migrants within their respective national contexts, the study contributes to a deeper understanding of transnational migration and informs interventions aimed at protecting migrant workers’ rights and well-being.
Graduate Student Research Lightning Round: Emerging Issues – Technology, Social Media, and Climate Change
Vancouver Convention Centre (VCC), East 13
Saturday, September 13, 10:00 – 11:30am
Lightning Round with Virtual Participation
Participants:
(Chair) Jana von Stein, The Australian National University
(Discussant) Sverrir Steinsson, University of Toronto
Papers:
Climate Change and Health Policy: A Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Approach
Sonali Singh, The University of Texas at Dallas
The intersection of climate change and health policy represents a pivotal area of research as environmental changes increasingly exacerbate health disparities and place unprecedented strains on global healthcare systems. This study evaluates the effectiveness of health policy interventions designed to mitigate the adverse health impacts of climate change, employing the Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) methodology to provide robust causal inference. By constructing synthetic control groups that closely mimic treated units prior to intervention, this approach addresses limitations in traditional Difference-in-Differences (DID) and Synthetic Control (SC) methods, particularly in settings with non-parallel pre-intervention trends.
The research focuses on critical health outcomes, including respiratory illnesses, heat-related mortality, and the prevalence of vector-borne diseases. It assesses the impact of various climate adaptation policies, such as heat action plans, early warning systems, and healthcare infrastructure improvements. Treatment units include countries implementing these policies, while control units are drawn from a pool of nations with comparable pre-intervention characteristics, such as climate vulnerability indices and public health infrastructure levels. Data sources include global health datasets, climate impact indices, and policy records.
Preliminary findings suggest that targeted climate-health policies significantly reduce heatwave-related deaths and respiratory conditions, highlighting the efficacy of early adaptation measures. However, the analysis also uncovers variations in effectiveness based on policy design, governance quality, and implementation practices, emphasizing the importance of context-sensitive, scalable solutions. These results underline the urgency of addressing the growing health impacts of climate change through evidence-based approaches.
By leveraging SDID, this study contributes to the broader discourse on reimagining public health policy in times of crisis. It highlights how adaptive strategies can mitigate health risks, promote sustainability, and strengthen equitable health systems. Ultimately, this research offers actionable insights for policymakers, fostering resilient, inclusive, and sustainable responses to the escalating health challenges posed by climate change.
How the Chinese Government Constructs State Idols to Compete for Online Attention
Yating Zhang, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
The proliferation of social media and digital technology has pushed authoritarian governments to move beyond censorship and control for sustaining their power. Aligned with the growing literature on novel soft propaganda strategies deployed by autocrats, this research identifies a strategy of constructing state idols as a new version of celebrity effect which is commonly used. Unlike the previous practice of co-opting celebrities, constructing state idols means that the government idolize their chosen ones with both popular fandom culture and ideological doctrines by its own hands. The research intends to reveal how the Chinese government constructs state-sponsored celebrities to compete for online attention with observational evidence and experimental evidence. First, I utilize computer-assisted text analysis with the Weibo, WeChat corpus of state media content, to understand the usage pattern of constructing state idols, then compare numeric online attention of state media posts between which contains idolization frames and the others in the real context. Second, for better causal inference, I conduct an online experiment to measure how the provision of state media excerpts about constructing state idols affects netizens’ click preferences. This research sheds important theoretical insights on how authoritarian online propaganda carefully combines orthodoxy and popularity in an adaptive but proactive way.
Patriotism or Pressure? China’s Ontological Security in South China Sea Dispute
Zheng Zhou, Sciences Po
The South China Sea dispute represents a critical intersection of nationalism, public opinion, and foreign policy in China’s contemporary international relations. This study explores the dual role of public opinion—both as a source of patriotic support and as a driver of policy pressure—through the lens of ontological security theory. Drawing on a mixed-methods approach, the research integrates qualitative content analysis of state-owned media and social media platforms, quantitative survey data on public attitudes toward the dispute, and social network analysis of nationalist discourse.
Case studies of pivotal incidents, including the 2019 Vanguard Bank standoff and the 2023 Second Thomas Shoal confrontation, provide a contextual backdrop for understanding the interaction between public sentiment and state policy. These cases reveal that nationalist sentiments act as both a mechanism for bolstering state identity and a constraint on diplomatic flexibility. While such sentiments legitimize sovereignty claims and reinforce the government’s position in international negotiations, they simultaneously intensify the rigidity of foreign policy stances, limiting the state’s ability to adapt to external pressures.
The study also examines the rise of “digital nationalism” as a key variable, leveraging sentiment analysis of online discourse to quantify the influence of public opinion in shaping policy. Findings suggest that the rapid dissemination of nationalist narratives on social media amplifies public pressure on the government, complicating its ability to balance domestic expectations with international realities. These dynamics underscore the duality of public opinion: a source of legitimacy for state actions and a significant constraint on policy innovation.
By situating the South China Sea dispute within the broader framework of globalization and regional tensions, this paper advances the understanding of public opinion’s evolving role in state behavior. It highlights the need for further research into the interplay of nationalism, digital communication, and policy-making in an era of increasingly complex international relations.
Repression beyond Borders: China’s Informational Autocracy and Non-State Control
SiLang Huang, University of Toronto
Context: Emergent technologies have profoundly reshaped the landscape of diaspora politics and authoritarian repression, extending the reach of state control beyond national borders (Earl, Maher & Pan 2022; Xu 2021; Feldstein 2021). Digital platforms have become critical spaces for collective action, but authoritarian regimes are increasingly using covert and advanced information control such as surveillance and disinformation tools to suppress dissent and manipulate political narratives (Dragu & Lupu 2021; Kendall-Taylor et al., 2020; Gohdes 2020; Khalil et al., 2020; Polyakova & Meserole 2019). These strategies have had a profound effect on diaspora communities residing in democratic host countries such as Canada, where political dissidents and activists continue to face indirect forms of homeland state control.
Research Questions: The primary aim of this research is to explore how informational autocracies like China use non-state actors to control diaspora communities in democratic countries such as Canada. Specifically, it investigates how the Chinese authoritarian regime leverages non-state actors—such as state-funded media outlets and civil society organizations—to exert control over diaspora communities and shape their political attitudes in Canada. While these non-state actors operate within democratic societies such as Canada, they play a critical role in misinforming and manipulating diaspora communities, aligning their narratives with the authoritarian state’s interests. This type of subtle control extends authoritarian influence beyond borders and blurs the lines between state and civil society. Also, it has the potential to interfere with democratic processes, such as elections, by shaping the political behavior of diaspora communities. Instances of electoral interference in Canada, particularly concerning foreign influence campaigns (Murphy 2024; Reuters 2024), underscore the urgency of examining how authoritarian regimes like China use non-state actors to destabilize democratic governance and control the diaspora communities.
Objectives: The study seeks to understand how disinformation shapes political engagement and impacts the broader political landscape in democratic host countries. The objectives are (1) to uncover and analyze China’s evolving strategies of information-based repression through diaspora media, and (2) to assess the implications of these strategies for diaspora mobilization and democratic processes. This research will provide insights into how diaspora media and civil society organizations function as tools of authoritarian control and potential sites of resistance. By analyzing the interaction between China’s informational control and its effects on diaspora communities, the study will contribute to understanding the transnational dimensions of modern authoritarian repression.
Framework: The concept of an “informational autocracy” (Guriev and Treisman 2020) provides a critical framework for understanding how modern authoritarian regimes maintain control through information manipulation rather than overt repression. Informational autocracies like China use disinformation—the deliberate spread of false narratives—to shape public perceptions and suppress dissent. In diaspora communities, particularly in democratic countries like Canada, this allows the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to maintain control across borders. For example, China uses state-controlled diaspora media and digital platforms like WeChat and TikTok to maintain cultural and informational influence over younger generations of overseas Chinese, thereby creating a web of state-sponsored soft power (Ding 2020). Through these tactics, the CCP seeks to stifle opposition and disrupt diaspora engagement with democratic governance. Informational autocracies rely on diaspora media outlets and co-opted non-state actors such as civil society organizations to disseminate state-approved narratives while filtering information that could undermine the regime’s legitimacy. Understanding these control mechanisms is essential for comprehending how modern authoritarian regimes like China maintain control and extend influence over diaspora communities without resorting to overt repression.
Threat Multiplier? The Impact of Climate Migration on Existing Conflicts
Anna Garner, Columbia University
The link between climate change, conflict, and migration has been one of keen interest to policy makers, practitioners, government, and citizens over the last several decades. Conflicts and migration are the results of complex, interrelated factors that vary from context to context. Isolating whether and to what degree climate change contributes to migration and conflict is nearly impossible.
To address these challenges, I ask what impacts a climatic event has on the dynamics of an existing conflict. In particular, I investigate the impact of climate migration in light of a natural disaster on the dynamics of an existing conflict. This circumvents the issue of whether climatic events cause conflicts and to what extent.
To do this, I add to Ide (2023)’s database of post-1990 natural disasters during conflicts and code whether there was a significant level of displacement and the level of state capacity. Then I delve into the mechanisms by which climate migration may have been escalatory or de-escalatory through case studies of Bangladesh (1991) and (2007), and Somalia (2010).
I find initial support that migration plays a role if both escalation and de-escalation as mediated by state capacity. This paper makes important contributions to the literature. First, this paper develops a new theory of the conditions under which climate migration leads to escalation and de-escalation of a conflict. Second, this paper attempts to push beyond a securitization framework. This paper not only asks whether climate migration contributes to an escalation but looks at the conditions under which de-escalation and peace are more likely.
The Effect of Election Misinformation on Twitter (X) on Youth Voters
Jane Rolland Grady, University of Alabama
In 2020, Twitter (now called X) added banners that marked tweets that contained misinformation. This was applied to a variety of topics, including COVID-19, absentee voting, and election misinformation. A 2021 poll conducted by the Pew Research Policy found that 69% of American Twitter said that they received news from the social media website. 59% of Twitter (X) users say that the social media site is an important way to keep up with news but not the most important, while 8% of respondents say that it is the most important way to keep up with the news (Mitchell, 2021).
In the three most recent presidential elections, misinformation has had a drastic effect on voters and their perceptions and attitudes about elections. This study will examine how misinformation labels affect an individual’s trust when confronted with election related tweets. It will utilize an experimental design to test if a misinformation label on a tweet will affect the trust an individual has in the factuality of the information. It will be randomized to show participants tweets from either a random individual, President Trump, Fox News, or CNN. This study expects to find that individuals are more likely to believe a tweet is true if it comes from their party elite, even if it does have a misinformation content label.
As demonstrated by the polls, a substantial number of Americans received their news from Twitter. However, Twitter has been known to spread misinformation or misleading information, as well. In a 2020 press release about the misinformation policy, Twitter acknowledged their role in spreading misinformation about COVID-19. In this release, three types of misleading content were identified as misleading information, disputed claims, and unverified claims. The level of potential harm one of these tweets contain affected the label it has. For example, tweets with misleading information with only a moderate level for harm have been labeled, whereas a severe level of harm due to that misleading information has been removed.
This study seeks to determine whether misinformation tags to election-related tweets impact the degree to which voters trust election information from news and social media sources. A pilot study was conducted in August 2024 using University of Alabama students which found that students were self-reportedly more likely to trust Twitter (X) misinformation tags than mainstream news. This study hypothesizes that young voters will trust the information tweeted by the mainstream news more than the misinformation labels, while Republican leaning individuals will trust the information tweeted by President Trump more than the misinformation tag. With many young voters being raised online from a young age, new democratic norms are being created in politics. This study seeks to fill the research gap and create a better understanding of how young people are engaging with online news in an age filled with misinformation.
Social Media Misinformation and Decline in Interstate Socio-Economic Relations
Jane Rolland Grady, University of Alabama
In 2020, Twitter (now called X) added banners that marked tweets that contained misinformation. This was applied to a variety of topics, including COVID-19, absentee voting, and election misinformation. A 2021 poll conducted by the Pew Research Policy found that 69% of American Twitter said that they received news from the social media website. 59% of Twitter (X) users say that the social media site is an important way to keep up with news but not the most important, while 8% of respondents say that it is the most important way to keep up with the news (Mitchell, 2021).
In the three most recent presidential elections, misinformation has had a drastic effect on voters and their perceptions and attitudes about elections. This study will examine how misinformation labels affect an individual’s trust when confronted with election related tweets. It will utilize an experimental design to test if a misinformation label on a tweet will affect the trust an individual has in the factuality of the information. It will be randomized to show participants tweets from either a random individual, President Trump, Fox News, or CNN. This study expects to find that individuals are more likely to believe a tweet is true if it comes from their party elite, even if it does have a misinformation content label.
As demonstrated by the polls, a substantial number of Americans received their news from Twitter. However, Twitter has been known to spread misinformation or misleading information, as well. In a 2020 press release about the misinformation policy, Twitter acknowledged their role in spreading misinformation about COVID-19. In this release, three types of misleading content were identified as misleading information, disputed claims, and unverified claims. The level of potential harm one of these tweets contain affected the label it has. For example, tweets with misleading information with only a moderate level for harm have been labeled, whereas a severe level of harm due to that misleading information has been removed.
This study seeks to determine whether misinformation tags to election-related tweets impact the degree to which voters trust election information from news and social media sources. A pilot study was conducted in August 2024 using University of Alabama students which found that students were self-reportedly more likely to trust Twitter (X) misinformation tags than mainstream news. This study hypothesizes that young voters will trust the information tweeted by the mainstream news more than the misinformation labels, while Republican leaning individuals will trust the information tweeted by President Trump more than the misinformation tag. With many young voters being raised online from a young age, new democratic norms are being created in politics. This study seeks to fill the research gap and create a better understanding of how young people are engaging with online news in an age filled with misinformation.
Social Media Misinformation and Decline in Interstate Socio-Economic Relations
Adeshewa Ibrahim, Southern Illinois University; Akinbiyi Oyekunle, Southern Illinois University Carbondale
Recent findings reveal the proliferation of misinformation in the virtual space for channeling political objectives, particularly in Africa with more than 400 million active social media users and more than 600 million internet users. As a result of the foregoing, there is an intense driving of wrong information in the African media ecosystem, as political actors are taking advantage of social media communications platforms at a higher and faster scale beyond the traditional analog medium. The use of social media platforms by politicians for agenda-setting roles also buttresses how media and, by extension, Twitter social media is used to set anti-immigrant sinister agendas presumed to be the utmost desires of nationals.
This study broadly explores media misinformation, paying particular attention to social media as a possible quagmire in interstate socio-economic relations between states in the case of Nigeria and South Africa. Consequently, this study attempts to analyze the trends of social media misinformation, and its adverse effects on people’s xenophobic perceptions. The study investigates how social media misinformation contributes to the recent decline in diplomatic relations between interstates considering the persistent increase in the spread of misinformation, which can potentially lead to or enhance interstate conflict. Thus, this study raises two key research questions such as, what are the potential impairments of social media misinformation on diplomatic relations between states? How does social media misinformation contribute to the declining structure of interstate socioeconomic interactions?
This study incorporates qualitative analysis based on Content Analysis (CA) along with simple descriptive statistics to examine interstate conflict. The paper explores how the surge of social media misinformation, particularly Twitter, can impact peaceful socio-economic relations across selected countries from 2008 through 2019 when the xenophobic crisis was at a significant height.
Drives Digital Payment Adoption? A Multi-Level Approach in Peru
Ghita Chraibi, University of Virginia
Although there is a long history of using technology in finance, significant differences exist in digital payment adoption across countries. This paper investigates the determinants of digital payments adoption, defined as the transfer of value from one payment account to another using a digital device or channel. My previous cross-country research reveals interesting variations in cash intensity (physical cash in circulation to GDP ratios): countries like Japan and Germany reflect high cash usage despite technological advancement and economic development, while other countries like Botswana and Nigeria maintain lower cash intensity. My research identified institutional determinants driving this variation in digital payments usage, including informal sector size, corruption levels, political stability, trust in government, and banking infrastructure. Building on these findings, I examine individual-level determinants of payment choices. Drawing on Giddens’ structuration theory (1984), which recognizes the interplay between societal structures and individual choices, I aim to uncover how both institutional context and individual agency shape payment method selection. I conduct a survey experiment in Peru to explore how individual-level characteristics such as political beliefs and ideology, levels of income and education, as well as risk appetite moderate the institutional context’s impact on digital payments usage. This multi-level approach is critical to enable comprehensive, evidence-based policy recommendations through understanding which segments of the population are more influenced by changes in perceived institutional quality, ultimately impacting their transition to digital payments.
Graduate Student Research Lightning Round: Comparative Politics
Vancouver Convention Centre (VCC), East 14
Saturday, September 13, 12:00 – 1:30pm
Lightning Round
Participants:
(Chair) Helen Murphey, Ohio State University
Papers:
Borrowing and Reframing Modernization: CCP’s Political Discursive Strategy
Yating Zhang, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Modernization is one of the most popular and frequently mentioned keywords in contemporary Chinese politics. Several generations of authoritarian leaders have upheld the modernization-related concepts of Four Modernizations, Socialist Modernization, and Chinese-style Modernization as the highest ideological agenda. However, modernization itself is a mature Western political term that stresses rationalization and democratization. How has it become a political cliché in the authoritarian context? When the CCP calls for modernization, what does it actually mean? How does the CCP handle the tension between the original meaning of modernization and its practical applications?
In the current literature on Chinese political discourse, keywords such as revolution, development, stability, harmony, democracy, and modernization all carry power effect far beyond their literal meanings. These keywords do not emerge in vacuum; they often originate from some historical meta-texts. Existing research tends to follow the legitimacy construction formula as “socialism plus nationalism plus traditional culture” in China politics research, thoroughly analyzing how corresponding discourses are constructed by invoking communist revolutionary heritage, weaving nationalist historical memory, and resetting Confucian traditional cultural resources. However, the process and mechanism of how Western theoretical concepts like modernization are borrowed and reconstructed into locally significant political discourses are largely neglected. Furthermore, this discourse construction of “Western knowledge for use” is related to a theoretical contradiction in the authoritarian regimes’ legitimacy. Specifically, they must integrate into the already established universal values and narratives of developed democracies but simply copy them can’t support local realities. How does the autocrat position itself between universality and locality?
This study combines computer-assisted content analysis and qualitative in-depth interpretation to examine reports on modernization in the People’s Daily corpus from 1950 to 2023 and essays on modernization by important Chinese political figures since 1900s. My empirical findings show that, first, since its introduction into China in the Republican era, the term modernization has gradually evolved into a highly abstract and inspiring symbol of national consensus that accommodates infinite imagination and debate, laying a historical foundation for it to become a convenient discourse tool for CCP. Second, over the past 70 years from 1950 to 2023, CCP has consistently used modernization as a sacred symbol in framing political performance in high-level domestic and foreign affairs. Third, CCP’s meaning construction of modernization has significant phased characteristics. Utilizing LDA topic model, I find that in the five periods of 1950-1978, 1978-1992, 1992-2002, 2002-2012, and 2012-2023, the relevant topics of modernization have changed with the phased central works, while topics on economic development are always the most important. It can be argued that the official discourse shifts the focus of explaining modernization according to the central works and policy priorities, especially the phased economic development goals. In addition, since the 1990s, the narratives of modernization have attempted to establish a necessary logical connection between the current political mode and the economic development performance of modernization, thereby strengthening the legitimacy of authoritarian political arrangements.
Based on these, my study further draws some theoretical mechanisms for CCP’s political discursive strategy. I argue that the symbolic borrowing project of “Western knowledge for use” is an important discursive strategy for CCP. Specifically, the party-state advocates policy agendas and shapes political consensus by borrowing and reconstructing a series of Western concepts recognized as universal values, such as modernization. This symbol borrowing project includes two mechanisms: selective introduction and creative connection. Selective introduction refers to that, the party-state selectively responds to the material production dimension in foreign templates when citing concepts such as modernization and placing economic development goals first. Creative connection refers to the government’s attempt to establish a tight logical connection between economic performance and authoritarian order, thereby strengthening legitimacy. The importance of topics about governance and social reform varied significantly between different periods, following the change of phased political agendas. Similar mechanisms can be found in other indigenized Western terms like democracy and human rights. The discursive mechanisms also consistent with performance legitimacy and pragmatism tradition in Chinese politics. This study can shed important insights to understand political discourse and propaganda, also legitimacy maintenance in contemporary authoritarian regimes.
China’s Foreign Development Assistance during Domestic Crises, 2020-2022
Lea Thome, College of William and Mary
Between 2020 and 2022, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has undergone a two-fold crisis: the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading the Chinese government to institute a zero-COVID policy, and mounting economic challenges, including slowed GDP growth and decreased consumer spending. China, through its 2013 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has established itself as one of the largest bilateral development partners in the world.
This paper will seek to answer how China’s two-fold domestic crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic slowdown has impacted its outbound delivery of development assistance to foreign recipient countries. Using AidData’s Global Chinese Development Finance Data between 2020 and 2022, a dataset of 4,947 available records with non-estimated commitment dates provides a comprehensive overview over China’s loans and grants during this time period and reveals insights into the correlation between internal crises and external assistance.
This paper will employ regression modeling based on financial commitment amounts and domestic variables, such as (1) COVID-19 cases, (2) COVID-19 deaths, (3) total retail sales of consumer goods, and (4) the urban surveyed unemployment rate to assess the relationship. Instead of relying on monthly-reported GDP numbers, this paper employs economic variables that serve as proxy indicators to monthly GDP growth. I hypothesize that while the COVID-19 pandemic had a statistically weak impact on outbound assistance, China’s economic slowdown emerges as a contributing variable which has led China to scale back its development assistance between 2020 and 2022.
Building on foundational research conducted by Bluhm et al. (2025), Dreher et al. (2021), and Dreher et al. (2022), this paper will advance research on how China will alter its international economic behavior on the foundation of domestic challenges in the face of future challenges. Future research may include how China’s domestic anti-corruption campaigns impact disbursal of international funds. While limitations, such as access to data, persist in performing research, this study develops new understandings and methodologies in understanding China’s behavior as an international lender.
Interaction between Work Teams and Village Cadres in Rural China
Cynthia Cheng
This research focuses on the interaction mechanism between work teams and village cadres during the national campaign of targeted poverty alleviation. Based on the fieldwork in 13 villages, which are all located in B county of Hubei province, this research finds two interaction mechanisms. In the first mechanism, the work team leader owns a large amount of economic resource, and thus has the final say in the village issues. In this case, work team members tend to lack local knowledge. In the second mechanism, the work team leader is incapable of providing enough economic resources. Therefore, the work team tends to discuss and cooperate with village cadres during resource allocation. What’s more, this research suggests that villagers hold higher trust in work team members and village cadres in the second mechanism.
Partial Administrative Absorption in China: Insights from Microgrid Governance
Cynthia Cheng
This research focuses on the interaction mechanism between work teams and village cadres during the national campaign of targeted poverty alleviation. Based on the fieldwork in 13 villages, which are all located in B county of Hubei province, this research finds two interaction mechanisms. In the first mechanism, the work team leader owns a large amount of economic resource, and thus has the final say in the village issues. In this case, work team members tend to lack local knowledge. In the second mechanism, the work team leader is incapable of providing enough economic resources. Therefore, the work team tends to discuss and cooperate with village cadres during resource allocation. What’s more, this research suggests that villagers hold higher trust in work team members and village cadres in the second mechanism.
Emerging Scholars Symposium: Research in Five (Undergraduate Students)
Vancouver Convention Centre (VCC), East 14
Saturday, September 13, 2:00 – 3:30pm
Emerging Scholars Lightning Round
Participants:
(Discussant) Georgia Litle, University of Oklahoma
Papers:
Church Homophily in Party Identification and Issue Salience
Luke Bellinger, University of Texas at Austin
This paper measures the effect of church racial homophily on issue salience regarding social issues and party identification. Church racial homophily is the extent to which a respondent’s church contains people of the same race as the respondent. This study taps into homoracial religious spaces as a possible place for political socialization, which has been recognized separately for various racial communities and contexts in previous literature. This paper theorizes that for people and communities of color, social issues (in this paper measured as abortion and same-sex marriage) are less likely to be salient among those who go to churches with high homophily as compared to those with low homophily, and that that identifying as a Democrat is more likely for those who go to churches with high homophily as well. This is tested using the CMPS dataset using OLS and Logit regressions. This study finds that Black and Hispanic respondents are more likely to identify as Democrats if they go to a church with high homophily, a positive but non-significant effect is found with Asians. For issue salience on abortion and same-sex marriage, a non-significant negative effect is found for all racial categories except for Black respondents in churches with high homophily who are significantly less likely to consider opposing same-sex marriage a salient issue. Though negative effects were found, it’s possible that these effects were insignificant because of not having enough responses, and future surveys should be taken to further assess this component of political socialization. Qualitative research would also be beneficial in evaluating the mechanisms of issue salience and political messages in religious communities of color.
Dynamics of Compliance: Türkiye and the European Court of Human Rights
Zeynep Karatas, University of California, Irvine
Widely recognized as the most effective international human rights tribunal in the world (Helfer, 2008), the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) plays a pivotal role in enforcing international law. However, despite its acclaim and influence, varying levels of state compliance with the Court’s rulings raise questions about the factors shaping adherence to its judgments and their implementation (Stiansen, 2019). For example: To what extent does the effectiveness of international human rights law depend on global legal institutions? How do elements such as domestic political turmoil, democratic governance, and a nation’s Rule of Law Index (ROLI) impact compliance with international mechanisms, even when adjudicative and enforcement structures exist?
This study uses Türkiye, the country with the highest number of pending cases before the ECtHR, as a case study to empirically explore these questions. It analyzes Türkiye’s socio-political developments, trends in democracy and ROLI indices, and the framing and outcomes of significant ECtHR cases over the past two decades. By examining these dynamics, this research aims to identify broader patterns of how domestic political factors influence compliance with international legal rulings and assess the implications for the effectiveness of global institutions in protecting human rights.
Faces behind the Mask: Uncensored Political Attitudes of China’s Elite Students
Yuxuan Su, Tsinghua University; Mingxuan Liu, Tsinghua University
China’s Elite University Students (CEUS) have held significant advantages in political promotion since 1978. When facing career choices after graduation, CEUS also prefer to enter the public sector. Therefore, for scholars and policymakers interested in China, understanding the political attitudes and values of CEUS is key to comprehending the future of China. However, the political attitudes of CEUS remain unclear. Bruce & Downs (2005) argue that higher education challenges authoritarian rule. But after 1989, with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s increased control over higher education, the CEUS turned to a puzzling silence. China’s extensive censorship of social media since 2013 has also narrowed the information sources available to the public and fostered preference falsification, making it even harder for scholars to observe the true political attitudes of CEUS.
Our study contributes a unique dataset collected from posts on an uncensored, anonymous Tsinghua University campus forum. Tsinghua University ranked 25th globally in the QS rankings 2025. Since 1953, Tsinghua has been dedicated to cultivating intellectual elites loyal to the CCP. In fact, over 280 senior officials in the CCP Central Committee, including Xi Jinping, are alumni of Tsinghua. The forum (new-t.github.io) is an uncensored site only accessible to Tsinghua students by using VPN. It has two key features: security and anonymity. The security aspect refers to the site’s GitHub-based structure, which makes it technically immune to censorship. A notable characteristic is the presence of numerous posts attacking Xi Jinping, which have not been deleted. Anonymity refers to the site’s use of random salt hashing and periodic resets, preventing anyone, including the site administrators, from obtaining users’ personal information.
We collected 584,127 forum posts from Jul. 8, 2020, to Dec. 31, 2024, and utilized a pre-trained deep learning model to identify 24,659 politically relevant posts, with a strong accuracy rate of 89%. Calling ChatGPT’s API for data processing and leveraging traditional LDA models, we dug into the latent semantic topics within the political content and found three subtopics: Chinese Politics, International Politics, and Graduate Selection. Additionally, we incorporated posts from Peking University campus forum, which is under CCP’s censorship, as a control dataset for comparison. Our core finding is that, despite that CCP’s propaganda and Tsinghua’s “loyal tradition” successfully disciplined some CEUS, a significant number of students still expressed their dissatisfaction with the government.
First, by categorizing the texts based on political values, we found that 69% of the posts endorsed the values of democracy and human rights, criticized the CCP’s political repression of ethnic minorities, and expressed concerns about rampant nationalism.
Second, unlike the “low demand for uncensored information” observed by Chen & Yang (2019) due to media censorship, we found that the firewall failed to block information access for CEUS. Through text segmentation, we identified the top five sources of information: YouTube, Xinhua News Agency, Zhihu, The New York Times, and South China Morning Post. Interestingly, approximately 0.7% of the posts discussed VPN access channels, further confirming the failure of the firewall among CEUS.
Third, we confirmed the role of CCP censorship and the existence of preference falsification among CEUS. Compared to the Tsinghua forum, the Peking University forum featured almost no calls for collective action, significantly fewer discussions about China’s political system, and only a slight decrease in discussions about international politics. Additionally, dissatisfaction and criticism of the government and system were significantly higher in the Tsinghua forum than in public Tsinghua student survey data, supporting the notion of preference for disguise among CEUS.
Fourth, we found that the motivations for CEUS to enter the public sector are pragmatic considerations, rather than endorsing the authoritarian regime or having authoritarian personalities, which has been emphasized by previous scholars.
Fifth, over 95% of CEUS hope for a de-escalation of US-China relations. Most CEUS hold positive views on US technology and business topics and express a desire to study or settle in the US in the future. However, 27% of students still hold negative views on US political issues.
In conclusion, the uncensored, anonymous Tsinghua University forum data provides a unique resource for analyzing the political attitudes of China’s elite university students. Through text analysis, we discovered that while CCP political propaganda and integration efforts have some influence on elite students, a significant number of them, who outwardly support authoritarianism, actually support democratic values. In the long run, the findings help us better understand and predict China’s political modernization process and the future of US-China relations.
How Do Sex Scandals Affect Young Citizens’ Political Participation?
Emily Bemis, University of Pittsburgh; Olivia Budike, University of Pittsburgh; Clara Gilles, University of Pittsburgh; Yuyang Pu, University of Pittsburgh
How do sex scandals in politics affect young citizens’ political participation? While existing literature primarily focuses on their impact on politicians, their influence on young citizens’ political participation remains understudied. We argue that both the type of sex scandal and the way authorities handle it significantly shape young citizens’ career decisions. Given that women are disproportionately affected by sexual misconduct, we expect sex scandals to have heterogeneous gender effects. Using a survey experiment and qualitative interviews at a major public university, we find that exposure to sextortion, compared to other types of sex scandals such as extramarital affairs, discourages women from pursuing political careers and increases their perceived risk of encountering workplace sexual misconduct. Moreover, legal punishment, rather than other types of settlements, is the most effective way to address young women’s concerns about facing sexual misconduct. In contrast, while young men express similar concerns about the presence of sexual misconduct, they do not expect to be victims themselves, and their career choices remain largely unaffected. Consequently, exposure to political sex scandals may widen the gender gap at entry-level positions in politics. Our study highlights the heterogeneity of sexual scandals and provides potential recommendations for fostering female-friendly work environments.
Identity Politics: Affective Polarization and Americans’ Outgroup Attitudes
Emily Rusting, University of California, Los Angeles
In recent years, Americans’ dislike of the opposing party has increased—a phenomenon known as affective polarization (Iyengar et al. 2019). Along with this rise in partisan animosity, the past decade has seen increasingly open antipathy toward other social groups. Existing research suggests that group identities shape partisan strength and affective polarization (e.g. Robison and Moskowitz 2019, Mason and Wronski 2018), but work examining the spillover of partisan attitudes onto outgroup attitudes is more limited. This research addresses this gap by assessing how Americans’ levels of partisan animosity affect their attitudes toward racial, religious, and sexual orientation groups. To test the hypothesis that affective polarization and animosity toward social groups move together, I fielded a survey experiment to 1,250 American adults. Participants were randomly assigned to increased polarization, decreased polarization, or control condition. Their outgroup attitudes were assessed using a series of feeling thermometers, and a mediation analysis was conducted to examine the treatment effect. Both Democrats and Republicans exhibited more positive attitudes toward groups associated with the opposing party when their levels of affective polarization were lowered. When their levels of affective polarization were raised, respondents expressed more negative attitudes toward groups associated with the opposing party, but these effects were not statistically significant. These results suggest that rising affective polarization may not worsen attitudes toward outgroups, but working to diminish polarization could reduce prejudice.
Sign-Language with Vessels: China’s Assertiveness in the South China Sea
Hoang Trung Vu, University of South Florida; Giang Pham
China has significantly increased its assertiveness in the South China Sea for the last two decades, by growing its military presence in the region, occupying neighboring territories, and hampering freedom of navigation activities. Understandably, China’s actions are presumed to be guided by its quest for the interests that the South China Sea delivers, including vast amounts of natural resources or political and military interests. Yet, another overlooked reason behind China’s increasing activities in the South China Sea is growing relations between Southeast Asian nations and China’s adversaries, most notably, the United States.
Previous academic works, such as McManus, 2018, suggest a “deterrence theory”, where leader visits have a significant deterrent effect against possible aggressors, especially when accompanied by statements or an existing defense pact. Preliminary analysis shows that no statistically significant evidence supports the deterrence theory.
The research utilized quantitative methods to understand which factors affect China’s skirmish in the South China Sea. Using publicly available sources on claimants’ activities in the South China Sea and U.S. officials’ visits, we employed linear regression analysis, with a control variable of whether the visited nation has a defense pact or not, to see how China ramps up activities against neighboring countries in the face of these visits, as a form of “special communication” towards other players in the region. For maritime activities in the South China Sea, we used data from the South China Sea Data Initiative (Sexton and Ravanilla 2024). The data set includes Chinese skirmishes with other claimants and QUAD members, including the United States, Australia, Japan, and India from 2009 to 2023 with 916 data points. We also utilized data on U.S. officials’ visits, including those of U.S. presidents, U.S. Secretary of State, and U.S. Secretary of Defense, from the U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian and the Historical Office, Office of the Secretary of Defense.
The paper aims to expand by incorporating additional data and further examining provided cases by constructing smaller time frames between activities in the South China Sea and official visits. It also combines a multi-method approach, using historical analysis and theoretical analysis of known works on factors that motivate a nation’s assertiveness abroad, most notably in authoritarian politics, especially in China. We plan to examine Chinese activities in the South China Sea near important security and political events in the region, such as the Shangri-La Dialogue, ASEAN Summit, and East Asian Summit from 2009 to 2023.
The Progressive Paradox: How Democrats Won Rural Western Washington, 1976 – 2024
Conner Huey, Harvard University
As political realignment in the United States has seen white working-class voters shift their support from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party, scholars have begun examining the causes of this realignment among white working-class voters. Useful as this research in political realignment has been, current scholarship has largely failed to examine areas in which political realignment of white working-class voters has failed to occur. Examining these cases in which realignment has not occurred is important, as by understanding the mechanisms that may lead white working-class voters to remain Democrats, scholars can better understand why realignment has occurred. My research intervenes in this puzzle by examining the case of rural Western Washington from 1976 to 2024. The region presents a progressive paradox – despite being a white-working class region that has experienced substantial union decline since the 1990s, the region has supported the Democratic Party since the 1970s.
To develop this research, I employ a historical institutionalist approach to explore candidate quality and organizational network theories to understand the political development of rural Western Washington during this time period, utilizing original data and a mixed-methods approach, particularly archival, ethnographic, interview, and quantitative methods. Process-tracing the contributions that candidates have played in constructing and deconstructing party loyalties in the region, I develop candidate quality theories to explain Democratic Party resilience in the region by finding that liberal candidates in rural Western Washington have been of higher quality than conservative candidates across a variety of metrics, including incumbency advantage, fundraising advantages, and maintaining a robust local presence. Additionally, I process trace how liberal elected officials in the region have conducted strategic outreach to important constituencies in the region, including union and military constituencies, with this strategic outreach constructing party loyalties among the white working-class population. Consequently, even as union presence has declined in rural Western Washington since the 1990s, this sustained strategic outreach by liberal candidates has preserved longstanding party loyalties. By contrast, I discuss how conservative candidates in the region have avoided outreach to these constituencies and their material concerns, instead focusing on cultural and national issues that ultimately alienate the Republican Party from voters in the region and weaken loyalties for conservative causes.
Building upon this development of party loyalties by candidates, I examine the political development of the region through organizational network theories by analyzing how the attributes and characteristics of liberal and conservative organizations have shaped political outreach throughout the region. I discuss how the liberal organizational network of rural Western Washington has found greater success in voter outreach due to factors such as greater intra-network collaboration across liberal organizations in the region, operating on longer temporal horizons to bolster long-term political coalition development efforts, and greater integration within organizations at local and state levels to help conduct outreach to voters throughout rural Western Washington. By contrast, the conservative organizational network of rural Western Washington has failed to project similar success in the region. Despite possessing greater funding than liberal organizations, conservative organizations have been weakened by multiple characteristics, including intra-network conflict, operating on shorter temporal horizons, and a lack of robust geographic presence in all corners of the region. Conservative organizational networks that have contributed to conservative strength in other states, such as Americans for Prosperity or the Tea Party, have failed to take hold in rural Western Washington due to a lack of investment in developing the former in Washington, and other longstanding conservative organizations such as those belonging to the Christian Right have lacked popularity due to the influence of poor conservative candidates in the region weakening loyalties and support for Christian right causes among rural Western Washington residents. Furthermore, while union presence has declined in rural Western Washington, other organizations that would otherwise fill the gap, such as gun clubs, have not taken hold in rural Western Washington, thereby preserving the ability of the liberal organizational network in the region to conduct outreach. However, while conservatives have been unable to achieve victory in electing candidates, I explore how the attributes of the conservative organizational network of rural Western Washington have paradoxically helped conservatives to achieve success in other ways, particularly through ballot initiatives and referenda.
Understanding the Determinants of Re-Enfranchisement through Alabama
Eli Moore, University of Alabama
There is arguably nothing more important to one’s civic engagement than suffrage. The mark of adulthood in America, citizens join the political world when they begin to participate in democratic institutions – with voting serving as both complaint and complement. While protest and petition remain essential pieces of civic life, the ballot gives the average American a feeling of impact. Despite this, in 2024, about 4 million Americans were denied their right to vote due to a felony conviction, and in Alabama, over 5 percent of the adult population is disenfranchised (Uggen et al., 2024). Most states that restrict voting rights restore them upon completion of either sentence, probation, or payment of fines, but Alabama requires a further application process.
Alabama’s Felony Disenfranchisement laws broadly affect all citizens; however, does the burden of re-enfranchisement fall upon certain subgroups harder than others? Prior research has already established that formerly incarcerated citizens vote at a rate disproportionately lower than those without, yet these findings have struggled to distinguish between pre- and post-sentence factors that may depress turnout. This ambiguity makes it difficult to predict how policy interventions and outreach related to the restoration of voting rights could affect overall turnout.
This study examines the rate of re-enfranchisement for the population of voters in Alabama who were removed from the voter file due to a felony conviction between 2017 and 2021. Using this data, we seek to identify the determinants of felony re-enfranchisement. With the unique data set provided, it is possible to control for other contributing factors towards political disinterest and focus exclusively on those that were registered to vote before having this right stripped away. This can be used to predict the overall re-enfranchisement rate and its effect on turnout specifically. Additionally, the dataset can be used to estimate the effect that characteristics like race or residence location have on re-enfranchisement by comparing rates of disenfranchised voters with a similar group of voters who were removed from the voter file due to the state’s postcard purging process.
Graduate Student Research Lightning Round: AP – Representation, Participation, & Elections
Vancouver Convention Centre (VCC), East 13
Saturday, September 13, 4:00 – 5:30pm
Lightning Round
Participants:
(Chair) Michael Sances, Temple University
(Discussant) Levi Allen, Indiana State University
Papers:
Partisan Misalignment and Voter Turnout
Yang Yang, Pennsylvania State University; Yang Song, Pennsylvania State University
This project explores the intersection of partisan misalignment, public goods provision, and voter turnout within the U.S. political landscape. We focus on how misalignment between local and state government partisanship influences electoral participation, examining the conditions under which partisan misalignment impacts resource allocation and the resulting voting costs borne by constituents. While previous studies have documented partisan biases in resource distribution (e.g., Gerber and Hopkins, 2011; Fraga et al., 2022; Miras and Rouse, 2022), the implications for voter turnout under varying levels of government alignment remain underexplored. This project combines a natural experiment leveraging observational data with a unique conjoint experiment design to uncover the aggregate and individual-level dynamics of partisan misalignment on voter turnout. We merge county-level voter turnout records with county-level partisan alignment information from the state and utilize geographic locations from a nationally representative survey to link respondents reported voting behavior to their residences. Employing a Difference-in-Differences approach, we compare voter turnout trends in counties with co-partisan and non-co-partisan state representatives, controlling key demographic and economic variables. Our proposed conjoint experiment utilizes a multi-group design with quota sampling. Conjoint profiles will be presented to two distinct groups based on their residence. Half of the survey participants will be recruited from localities where local partisanship aligns with the state majority party, while the other half will be recruited from localities where local partisanship diverges from the state majority party. The outcome of this survey experiment will measure participants’ intention to vote. We hypothesize that respondents from different localities will possess unique contextual knowledge. Additionally, we will manipulate environmental factors within the presented profiles to explore how hypothetical changes in weather conditions and the quality of local public goods, combined with respondents’ local knowledge, influence their intention to vote.
Redefining State Pivotality: A New Model for Electoral College Influence
Zora Mihaley, University of California, Irvine
The United States Electoral College (EC) system continues to provoke debate about the unequal power it grants to states in presidential elections. Traditional measures of state pivotality, such as the Shapley-Shubik and Banzhaf indices, evaluate influence through weighted voting models that prioritize the numerical weight of electoral votes. However, these models neglect the critical role of electoral competitiveness, where narrow vote margins can amplify a state’s importance. Wright’s (2009) rank-based approach addresses this gap by incorporating competitiveness through a ranking of states based on two-party vote margins, identifying the so-called “pivot state.” Yet, Wright’s framework excludes the weighted power of EC votes, limiting its ability to fully capture state influence.
In this paper, I propose a new multiplicative model that combines the strengths of these approaches by integrating both competitiveness and Electoral College vote share into a single metric. This model offers a more comprehensive and accurate measure of state pivotality, reflecting both the strategic weight of electoral votes and the dynamic role of competitiveness. Using data from the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections, I demonstrate that the interaction of these variables is a stronger predictor of candidate campaign behavior—measured through campaign visit frequencies—than traditional indices alone. To account for potential confounding factors, I incorporate Federal Election Commission (FEC) campaign donation data, confirming that donations do not explain the observed relationship between state pivotality and campaign visits. Additionally, I evaluate traditional power indices over 100 years of presidential elections, revealing their limited correlation with competitiveness and underscoring the need for an integrated approach.
This study reveals key insights into the factors driving the designation of battleground states and highlights the advantages of combining theoretical rigor with empirical validation. By addressing the limitations of prior methodologies, the multiplicative model may provide a more nuanced framework for understanding the strategic importance of states in presidential elections and offers practical implications for campaign resource allocation, voter mobilization strategies, and the broader study of electoral systems.
Representational Expectations, Evaluations, and Political Efficacy
Caroline High Pippert, Northwestern University
There are multiple metrics of political representation. These include how well representatives advocate for constituents’ policy positions, whether they engage in casework, whether they descriptively represent constituents, and if they are able to effectively move legislation through Congress. Little work explores how people value these various representational activities and how such evaluations affect their sense of political efficacy. I fill these gaps with a survey and conjoint experiment. In the survey, I ask respondents to describe what types of behavior or activities would exemplify a representative doing a “good job” of representing them. I also ask respondents to rank the importance of individual representational activities when it comes to assessing representation. I find that people value partisanship and issue positions more highly than descriptive characteristics like race and gender. Informed by these data, I designed a conjoint experiment to evaluate how various representational activities and characteristics influence evaluations of good representation and feelings of efficacy. Consistent with the survey, I find that partisanship and issue positions are more important to respondents’ conceptions of good representation and political efficacy than descriptive characteristics like race and gender. However, I also find that sharing race or gender with a representative still significantly affects respondents’ attitudes. Additionally, conceptions of good representation and political efficacy are highly related: people feel more efficacious when they feel more represented. This may echo common depictions of efficacy, but these results demonstrate that feelings of representation (e.g., via issue positions or descriptively) actually affect efficacy. Overall, people hold complex conceptions of representation and its relationship to their political efficacy, indicating that representatives have much to consider when it comes to representing their constituents and making them feel efficacious.
Triaging Representation: Black Representatives Organizing under Constraint
Christian Hosam, Wellesley College
The study of Black representation has focused largely on the relationship between having a descriptive representative and their commitments with respect to serving Black interests. But because the suite of tools that any individual legislator has at their disposal are so often tied to factors beyond their control, the field has usually measured the quality of representation through formal measures such as roll-call votes and agenda setting rather than in terms of material outcomes for constituencies. I argue that Black representatives attempt to compensate for their constraints legislatively by demonstrating their racial commitments through non-legislative activity, a phenomenon I call representational triage. To get at this, I download ~150,000 federal awards across 9 different sectors of American public policy to connect program spending decisions to district-level outcomes. I first find that even though having a Black member generally predicts higher levels of funding to districts, when accounting for differences in the kinds of districts that elect Black members, only minority business contracts display a positive and statistically significant effect. This is suggestive evidence that the dynamic of interest group representation benefiting advantaged subgroups, first theorized by Strolovitch (2007), is likely happening in Congress as well. This talk will also consider the next steps of the project: interviewing recipients of federal aid to chart if there are racial differences in local grant dispensation.
Weary Souls: Exploring the Effect of Disillusionment on Black Political Behavior
Mason Holland, University of Connecticut
Black voters are one of the most engaged ethno-racial groups in American democracy, and amongst the most politically active. The extant literature on Black political behavior shows that high levels of racial efficacy and linked fate correlate with a higher likelihood of political participation. Despite this, evidence also suggests that Black Americans are disillusioned with American politics, feeling as though American democracy falls short of sufficiently representing the interests of the Black electorate. I argue that disillusionment mediates the relationship between linked fate/racial efficacy and disillusionment, hypothesizing that as a Black voter becomes more disillusioned, the less effect that linked fate or racial efficacy have on the likelihood that they will participate in American politics. As this research is in its early stages, I plan to survey a nationally representative sample of Black voters to examine how disillusionment shapes the relationship between racial efficacy/linked fate and political behavior. I also plan to conduct interviews with Black citizens to gain insight into the process of disillusionment, to highlight the different pathways to disillusionment, as well as the potentially differing outcomes across the electorate.